2008 State Polls

Are Democratic Voters Ignoring John Edwards As an Option?

1/14/08

Here are two national polls showing John Edwards pegged at 11%.. Despite the fact that John Edwards polls the best in general election matchup polls, it is starting to look like a two candidate horse race.

We are testing out a focus group program in which we would analyze voter sentiments as they progress throughout a campaign season and even track the candidates that they support on a daily/weekly basis. This is relevant as our focus group subject Kris Lazaro stated this in his 1/13 post, "none of us felt that ... John Edwards would be qualified to be either president or vice-president ... he had his chance four years ago".

Kris Lazaro has also expressed his sentiments over John Kerry's endorsement of Barack Obama in his latest post.

According to the Democratic poll by ABC News/Washington Post Poll:

While Obama also has drawn much closer among whites, preferences of blacks are highly significant in some upcoming races; in the past blacks have accounted for 47 percent of Democratic voters in South Carolina (Jan. 26) and Georgia (Feb. 5), 46 percent in Louisiana (Feb. 9) and more than a third in Virginia and Maryland (Feb. 12).

According to the Democratic poll by CBS News/New York Times Poll:

Clinton’s win in New Hampshire was due in part to strong support from women, while men in New Hampshire chose Obama. However, nationally, Clinton not only has a sizable lead among women, by 43 percent to Obama’s 27 percent, but she also maintains a 11 point lead over Obama among men.

However, Obama has gained ground among voters under age 45 and black voters. With black voters, Obama is now the clear choice, leading Clinton 49 percent to 34 percent. In a CBS News Poll conducted last August, the two candidates ran about even among blacks. Obama leads Clinton among both black men and black women.

Although Clinton now outruns Obama among voters under age 45 by eight points, her lead is shrinking. In December, she led among this group by 20 points. She leads Obama by 20 points among voters age 45 and older, and has increased her lead since last month.

Partisanship also plays a factor in the race. Those who identify themselves as Democrats favor Clinton by a wide margin, while independents who intend to vote in a Democratic primary are more closely divided.

There is also still room for movement in the Democratic race. Fifty-seven of Democratic primary voters say their minds are made up, but 43 percent say it’s too soon to say for sure. Neither of the top two candidates enjoys firm support - 39 percent of Clinton’s voters say their minds could change, as do 43 percent of Obama’s.

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