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2008 State Polls

State Obama McCain
Battleground States [source]
Florida 51 48
Nevada 55 43
Colorado 54 45
Minnesota 54 44
Missouri 49 50
North Dakota 45 53
Pennsylvania 55 44
Iowa 54 45
South Dakota 45 53
New Mexico 57 42
Georgia 47 52
Ohio 52 47
New Hampshire 54 45
Wisconsin 56 43
Virginia 53 47
Arkansas 39 59
North Carolina 50 49
Indiana 50 49
Blue States
California 61 37
Connecticut 61 38
Delaware 62 37
Hawaii 72 27
Illinois 62 37
Maine 58 40
Maryland 62 37
Massachusetts 62 36
Michigan 57 41
New Jersey 57 42
New York 63 36
Oregon 57 41
Rhode Island 63 35
Vermont 68 31
Washington 58 41
Wisconsin 56 43
Red States
Alabama 39 61
Arizona 45 54
Idaho 36 61
Kansas 42 57
Kentucky 41 58
Louisiana 40 59
Montana 47 50
Nebraska 42 57
Oklahoma 34 66
South Carolina 45 54
Tennessee 42 57
Texas 44 55
Utah 34 63
West Virginia 43 56
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Pollsters Censoring Ron Paul from the States He Would Do Well In; Statistical Analysis

<< See all our Ron Paul articles.

Published May 18, 2007, 4PM PST

There have been 27 republican primary polls taken this calendar year WITHOUT referencing Ron Paul. And only 5 polls with Ron Paul. Here are the results in these polls.

 

All State Polls from 1/1/2007 w/o Ron Paul
Giuliani 27.8
McCain 22.7
Romney 6.9
F. Thompson 9.3
Ron Paul ---
All State Polls from 1/1/2007 w/ Ron Paul
Giuliani 26.0
McCain 20.5
Romney 8.0
F. Thompson 9.0
Ron Paul 1.0

It may look like Giuliani and McCain lose support with Ron Paul in the poll but because there are only 5 out of 32 state polls with Ron Paul mentioned, the small sample size kind of screws the results.

Ron Paul Excluded From Home State. But what we find here is appauling. Ron Paul only averages 1.0% in the state polls. But that is not the true story because the states that Ron Paul would do well in like Texas never have polls citing him. It is like the media does not want to report any successful Ron Paul stories. Because if there was no worries to them, then they would poll Ron Paul from Texas where he is from. That is just our personal take from the analysis of all these polls.

Candidates With Less Money And Little Support Are Included. Ron Paul is currently 4th among Republicans in fundraising so if he is not mentioned in 27 state polls why are all the other candidates who get less money and have very little support being included in far many polls?

Other Candidates. Let's take a look at something. Of these 32 states polls, how many times are the following candidates mentioned:

  • Newt Gingrich - 26 polls
  • Sam Brownback - 19 polls
  • Tom Tancredo - 19 polls
  • Mike Huckabee - 19 polls
  • Duncan Hunter - 15 polls
  • Tommy Thompson - 13 polls
  • Jim Gilmore - 12 polls
  • Chuck Hagel - 11 polls

Fair? Newt Gingrich makes sense because of his name recognition but he has not even pledged to run yet. 19 polls seems to be a key number because 3 of the other low candidates are included that many times but that represents 4 times as many polls as Ron Paul.

Sources

<< See all our Ron Paul articles.

 

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