Election Polls
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2008 State Polls
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Next Battleground is New Hampshire1/4/08
Barack Obama is working with a 6-16% deficit against Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. Zogby also has Edwards performing quite well but with only a few days to make up ground, it appears as though Obama is the only candidate that can challenge Hillary at this point. Biden and Dodd have dropped out of the Democratic race and although they were not pulling much support, who their voters go to may impact the race if it gets close enough. We would presume that Obama will make up the ground against Hillary and that it would go down to the wire. According to Zogby's New Hampshire tracking poll, Among likely–voting Democrats, Clinton also enjoys strength with 36% support, compared to 22% for Obama and 19% for Edwards. Among independents who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Obama enjoys 33% backing, compared to 27% support for Clinton and 21% for Edwards. Independent voters are important in New Hampshire because they can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary, and the inter–party competition for their affections is fierce. Eight years ago, they supported McCain in the GOP race instead of New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley in the Democratic race against Al Gore, dealing a severe blow to the Bradley campaign. In this tracking poll, the competition appears to be shaping up between McCain and Obama. As in Iowa, younger Democrats favor Obama over Clinton, but his advantage is not now near where they were in Iowa. Likewise, Clinton retains an Iowa–like edge among older voters, but she also has a smaller edge here than in Iowa. Edwards is a solid third in all age groups.
John McCain holds a slim 4% lead in both New Hampshire polls. We'll see how the results of Iowa impact this race but we would assume that the McCain and Romney numbers would not be impacted that much thanks to a victory by Huckabee in Iowa. According to Zogby's New Hampshire Tracking Poll, Republican John McCain has leapt into first place in the GOP primary race in New Hampshire, while Clinton holds on to a six–point edge in the first three–day Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll of likely voters shows. McCain’s lead is based on strength of support among moderates and independents, while Romney holds his own in what is, like Iowa, a two–man contest at this point in the GOP contest. Among moderates, McCain wins 53% support compared to 24% for Romney – and little significant support for anyone else on the GOP side. Among mainline conservatives, the two are evenly matched with Romney winning 32% and McCain winning 31%. Among self–described “very conservative” likely primary voters, Romney leads by a wide margin with 38%. Mike Huckabee is in second among the demographic group, with 21%. McCain is third with 19%. Among men, McCain leads Romney, 35% to 30%, and among women, McCain has 32% support to Romney’s 30%. Huckabee is third and Giuliani a close fourth in both gender demographics. [an error occurred while processing this directive] |
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