2008 State Polls

Dissecting Ron Paul's New Hampshire Polls

10/26/07

New Hampshire is clearly one of the most important states for Ron Paul's campaign. This is because New Hampshire voters tend to be Independent and are very critical of the Iraq war. And this helps an anti-war Republican in New Hampshire because voters can choose which primary to vote for.

So let's look at the latest poll by Anselm College.

Ron Paul is at 7% which is his best performance in a state-wide poll of New Hampshire voters. But the key is to look at how the voters broke down by political affiliation.

I am sure you noticed that Ron Paul is sitting at 44% among Liberals and there are still 13% of liberals that are unsure as to which candidate they might support. So he may even get 50% of the Liberal vote on election day. But will that be enough to catapult him to win the election? Probably not in and of itself.

At least not as long as Mitt Romney is in the 30% range. But these are a couple of factors that are working to Ron Paul's advantage right now.

• According to the Anselm College poll, 24% of primary voters are unsure as to which primary they will vote in. 48% of the voters that are paying no attention and 35% of the voters paying "not so much" attention to the campaigns are unsure as to which primary they will vote in. Ron Paul has an opportunity to make gains among them by spending all the money that he has.
• 29% of moderates according to this poll are undecided as to which primary they will vote in. Ron Paul is currently not doing well among that bunch but because he does so well among Liberals, it makes sense that he will make gains among this bunch.

In the end, how well Ron Paul does really depends on turnout of Liberals to support Ron Paul and whether the Moderates will begin to shift to Ron Paul. And here is why we believe both will go to his advantage.

1. Hillary Clinton is far ahead in all of the Democratic national and state polls. Due to a lack of competition, they will seek to make a "difference" by voting for Ron Paul in the Republican primary.
2. Liberals can help "ensure" an anti-war candidate by voting for Ron Paul.
3. Moderates are the ones that are most likely to be paying the least attention to the campaigns. They will, in the end, support Ron Paul just as the Liberals are. They will not be supporting in as high a percentage but it should jump from 5%.
4. Ron Paul has won 3 of 3 straw polls in the state of New Hampshire.

Ron Paul seriously looks like he can post significant gains in New Hampshire but he still needs the following to occur to have a chance of winning.

1. All the other Republican candidates: Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee, etc. split the GOP/pro-war vote more so than is occuring now. They need to drop Romney back down to mediocrity.

It will be interesting to see how the election will play out. But I strongly believe that if Ron Paul makes gains in the polls, GOPs will start to put more of their support behind one or two candidates as a means of blocking Ron Paul. But a strong performance here will catapult Ron Paul towards the rest of the primaries.

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