. Merrill attributes the large percentage of undecided voters to the long, divisive primary season on the Democratic side and the fact that neither of the main parties has held its conventions. The Democratic National Convention begins Monday, and the Republican National Convention starts Sept. 1. More people will start making up their minds after the conventions, Merrill said.
The poll was conducted by ASU's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication and local PBS affiliate Channel 8 (KAET).
McCain has consistently led in Arizona polls. While the state had been viewed as a potential swing state before McCain became the presumptive nominee, many political scientists expect Arizona to go with its home senator on Election Day. McCain easily won Arizona's primary. Obama lost to rival Sen. Hillary Clinton despite a vigorous campaign effort.
While polls give an indication of the way people are leaning, voter turnout will be key. Men: Obama 37, McCain 43, Barr 11. Women: Obama 48, McCain 36. McCain is now viewed favorably by 71% of Arizona voters, up from 60% in late June, while 26% see him unfavorably. Forty-three percent (43%) rate their opinion of Obama as favorable, down slightly from 47% in the last survey. Over half (55%) regard the Democrat unfavorably.
The Republican has expanded his lead over Obama among male voters from 27 points last month to 33 points now. He was behind among women voters by six points but now leads his Democratic opponent by two points with this group, too.
McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, Obama by 72% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain leads 45% to 32%, roughly the same as in late June. McCain is also doing considerably better with Hispanic voters in his home state than he is nationally, trailing 48-40 with that group in Arizona while he has a deficit well over 20 points nationally.
�There�s no shortage of typically Republican states for Barack Obama to compete in this fall,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Places like Indiana, Virginia, Colorado, North Dakota, and Montana all appear to be unusually competitive this year. Obama might be better suited to trying to pull off win in those places because Arizona looks like a long shot.� . . . . . . . .
