2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

American Research Group
Date: 1/30-31
Connecticut
Added: 2/2/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

In Connecticut, 28% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 19% say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Survey USA
Date: 1/30-31
Connecticut
Added: 2/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Quote:

Connecticut -- The Entire Democratic Nomination Battle Boiled Down to Its Essence: Few if any states present as perfect a microcosm of the Hillary Clinton - Barack Obama drama as does Connecticut. Men back Obama. Women back Clinton. Young voters back Obama. Older voters back Clinton. White voters split. Black voters back Obama. Hispanics back Clinton. Moderates back Clinton. Liberals back Obama. Voters focused on Health Care back Clinton. Voters focused on Iraq split. Voters focused on the Economy split. When all is added up, 4 days to the 02/05/08 Primary, it's Obama 48%, Clinton 44%, within the survey's 3.8 point margin of sampling error. Effectively tied. Given that 29% of voters say they may yet change their mind, it's not just tied, it's fluid. Obama leads in greater Hartford and New Haven. Clinton leads in the rest of the state. Relative turnout of men vs women, young vs old, white vs black, will largely shape the outcome.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/27
Connecticut
Added: 1/30/08
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]

Quote:

Clinton leads by four among women while Obama leads by six among men. Clinton leads among voters over 65 while Obama holds the edge among younger voters. Clinton does better among lower-income voters while Obama attracts more of those with higher incomes.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) think Clinton would be somewhat likely to win the election if nominated. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Obama.

Seventy percent (70%) of Clinton�s voters are certain they will vote for her. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Obama�s voters are that �certain.�

Hartford Courant poll / Center for Survey Research & Analysis at the University of Connecticut
Date: 1/9-17
Connecticut
Added: 1/20/08
Est. MoE = 4.8% [?]

Quote:

Clinton polls strongest among voters on the lower end of the education and income ladders, McDermott said.

Fifty-two percent of women favor her, compared with 21 percent for Obama and 6 percent for Edwards.

One piece of good news for Obama, a first-term Illinois senator: The more primary coverage voters see, the better he does. Among voters who say they have been following the campaign closely, Obama trails by 10 percentage points.

The number is 25 percentage points among voters who say they have followed the race somewhat closely or less.

Republican Polls

American Research Group
Date: 1/30-31
Connecticut
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

In Connecticut, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 38% to 28% among men, with 14% for Mike Huckabee. Among women, McCain leads Romney 48% to 22%, with 10% for Huckabee and 18% undecided.

Survey USA
Date: 1/30-31
Connecticut
Est. MoE = 4.7% [?]

Quote:

Connecticut Republican Primary: McCain in Command -- 4 days to the Connecticut Republican Primary, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 5:3 and is well-positioned for victory, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WABC-TV New York and WTNH-TV New Haven. Romney trails McCain by 9 points among Conservatives, but trails McCain by 32 points among Moderates. McCain runs strong in all portions of the state.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/27
Connecticut
Est. MoE = 4.4% [?]

Quote:

McCain leads in all demographic groups, including Connecticut conservatives. Among conservatives, it�s McCain 37% and Romney 31%. McCain wins the vote from 54% of moderates while just 24% prefer Romney.

One of the major surprises of Election 2008 is that the Republican Presidential Nomination may be decided before the Democrats select their candidate. In Connecticut, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Connecticut�s Republican Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of McCain. Sixty-eight percent (68%) say the same about both Romney and Giuliani.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that McCain would be at least somewhat likely to win the nomination if elected. Just 64% believe that�s true of Romney and only 54% believe Giuliani would have a chance.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) named the War on Terror as a Very Important issue for Election 2008. Seventy-six percent (76%) said the same about the economy.

Hartford Courant poll / Center for Survey Research & Analysis at the University of Connecticut
Date: 1/9-17
Connecticut
Est. MoE = 4.8% [?]

Quote:

McCain, 71, the Arizona senator once dismissed as too old and too estranged from the GOP's conservative base to be credible, is seen by Connecticut Republicans as the party's only chance to retain the White House.

Slightly more than half of Republicans say they are upbeat about winning in November if McCain is the nominee, and fewer than 30 percent see the party as strongly competitive with Giuliani or Romney at the top of the ticket.

With the Republican base in Connecticut heavily weighted toward the New York suburbs of Fairfield County, Giuliani quickly received endorsements last year from the legislature's Republican leaders, Rep. Lawrence Cafero of Norwalk and Sen. John McKinney of Fairfield.

"McCain does well in Connecticut for two reasons," McDermott said. "First, his maverick image sells well among likely Republican voters here, only half of whom call themselves conservatives."

The other factor, she said, is that conservatives in Connecticut have not rallied behind a candidate. Their votes are divided among Romney, Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.

"By splitting their votes among three conservative alternatives, they effectively elect McCain," she said.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Connecticut polls.

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