Top campaign advisers to Obama and McCain have said Iowa, where the past two presidential elections have been decided by 10,000 votes and fewer, is in the top tier of swing states. However, there are signs in the poll that Obama has a healthy advantage among key voter groups here. Chief among them are independents, 49 percent of whom say they prefer Obama, compared to 36 percent who say they support McCain.
McCain's advisers have said they believe he can win Iowa by turning out the Republican base and by appealing to independents drawn to his maverick streak on issues such as immigration. . "Obama is winning in all regions of the state, even in the western counties, where George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 17 points," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Obama is winning rural voters in Iowa, not something you see in many other states."
Iowa's caucuses kicked off the presidential primary season and launched Obama toward the Democratic presidential nomination.
"Iowa was Barack Obama's breakthrough state. He won the Democratic caucuses with a powerful organization. John McCain barely competed in the Iowa Republican caucuses. He came in fourth," said Bill Schneider, a CNN senior political analyst.
"Obama retains a strong organization in Iowa, where McCain is just beginning to get started," Schneider said. "The race in Iowa, while relatively close, appears to be moving in Obama's direction," said Hawkeye Poll Director David Redlawsk, associate professor of political science at the UI. "Most importantly for Obama, his supporters are much more likely to say they 'strongly support' him, which makes them much more likely to turn out on Election Day and much more likely to talk to friends and neighbors, volunteer in the campaign, and do the kinds of things that win elections. Typically, those who are less supportive are also less motivated to vote, no matter how much they say ahead of time that they'll turn out to vote."
Top campaign advisers to Obama and McCain have said Iowa, where the past two presidential elections have been decided by 10,000 votes and fewer, is in the top tier of swing states. However, there are signs in the poll that Obama has a healthy advantage among key voter groups here. Chief among them are independents, 49 percent of whom say they prefer Obama, compared to 36 percent who say they support McCain.
McCain's advisers have said they believe he can win Iowa by turning out the Republican base and by appealing to independents drawn to his maverick streak on issues such as immigration. . "Obama is winning in all regions of the state, even in the western counties, where George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 17 points," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Obama is winning rural voters in Iowa, not something you see in many other states."
Iowa's caucuses kicked off the presidential primary season and launched Obama toward the Democratic presidential nomination.
"Iowa was Barack Obama's breakthrough state. He won the Democratic caucuses with a powerful organization. John McCain barely competed in the Iowa Republican caucuses. He came in fourth," said Bill Schneider, a CNN senior political analyst.
"Obama retains a strong organization in Iowa, where McCain is just beginning to get started," Schneider said. "The race in Iowa, while relatively close, appears to be moving in Obama's direction," said Hawkeye Poll Director David Redlawsk, associate professor of political science at the UI. "Most importantly for Obama, his supporters are much more likely to say they 'strongly support' him, which makes them much more likely to turn out on Election Day and much more likely to talk to friends and neighbors, volunteer in the campaign, and do the kinds of things that win elections. Typically, those who are less supportive are also less motivated to vote, no matter how much they say ahead of time that they'll turn out to vote." When �leaners� are factored in, Obama leads his Republican opponent 49% to 44%.
Last month Obama had a double-digit lead on McCain, 51% to 41%. In June, after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race, he led McCain by seven points.
McCain had held steady at 38% for two months running, so the three-point uptick in the new survey is good news for his campaign.
Obama has the support of 79% of the state�s Democrats, while 84% of GOP voters back McCain. Among unaffiliated voters, the Democrat has a sizable lead, 46% to 30%, roughly the same as in July.
Iowa is viewed as a swing state, although the 2004 election was the first time in 20 years that the state had gone for the Republican presidential candidate. President Bush carried the state by less than 10,000 votes that year.
Both candidates have seen a slight shift in their favorability ratings. Obama is now viewed favorably by 54% of Iowa voters and unfavorably by 43%, a shift of five percentage points from the favorable to the unfavorable column in the past month. McCain is regarded favorably by 53%, down 3% since mid-July, and unfavorably by 44%, up from 40% a month ago.
