During the seven weeks since the last Iowa Poll, the candidates met for their three nationally televised debates as the nation's financial crisis turned the candidates' attention almost exclusively to the faltering economy. Obama's 17-point lead was up from 12 percentage points in the Register's previous poll, taken Sept. 8-10. Meanwhile, his supporters' confidence in him also improved, while confidence in McCain by his supporters slipped, according to the poll.
Third-party candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader received support from a total of 3 percent of voters.
"Clearly and broadly, I think Obama is the best of the two candidates," said Ronald Petrak, a 77-year-old Des Moines Democrat and retired pastor. "More specifically, his viewpoints and stands on issues seem to me to reflect far more directly what I feel. And I think he brings a positive message of hope."
More than six in 10 Obama supporters in Iowa said they were 100 percent confident he is the best person for the job, while roughly a third had some misgivings. Only about half of McCain's supporters said they were 100 percent confident he was best for the job, with about half expressing some uncertainty.
Four years ago, three-quarters of President George W. Bush's supporters expressed total confidence in the Republican, compared with about 60 percent for Democrat John Kerry. Bush narrowly carried Iowa during his re-election campaign.
Obama's improvement since the September poll comes despite four campaign appearances in Iowa by McCain during the period, including one with his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Palin also campaigned solo in Iowa a week ago.
By contrast, Obama has campaigned lightly in Iowa, where he won the party's leadoff nominating caucuses in January. The Democrat has made only three campaign visits to Iowa since clinching the nomination in June.
However, Obama has built upon the organization he set up last year during his campaign for the caucuses. First-time caucusgoers, including one-time political independents, were part of his winning formula.
Iowa, Purple in '00 and '04, is Solidly Blue in '08: In an election for President of the United States held in Iowa today, 10/10/08, 25 days until Election Day, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 54% to 41%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KAAL-TV Mason City and WHO-TV Des Moines. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, McCain is down two points; Obama is flat. Among men, Obama today leads by 9 points. Three weeks ago -- before three debates and the $700 billion economic rescue package, and immediately after Lehman Brothers, AIG, and Fannie Mae -- the race was tied among men. Among women, Obama had led by 20, now leads by 17. 6% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama. Independents favor Obama by 6 points.
Among the 14% of Iowa voters who say they have already cast their ballot, Obama leads by a 2:1 margin. Among likely voters, Obama leads 5:4.
