Despite his challenges, Obama holds many advantages on the eve of two critical events: his selection of a running mate and his formal crowning as the Democratic nominee at the party's national convention next week in Denver. By Labor Day, Obama hopes to regain -- and build upon -- the momentum he had after he defeated Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton in June. For now, voters favor Obama on the economy, the issue they rank as most important. Also, independents, a crucial swing bloc, are leaning toward Obama. And Obama's supporters remain more enthusiastic than McCain's, a sign that the Democratic candidate may be able to turn out more voters.
The Republican Party's dismal standing under President Bush also remains a drag on McCain's candidacy: 75% of voters say the country has veered onto the wrong track.
"McCain has more experience, but experience isn't everything," poll respondent John Ritts of Towanda, Pa., said in a follow-up interview. A retired teacher and former Republican whose dissatisfaction with Bush drove him to switch his party affiliation to independent, Ritts supports Obama.
In a head-to-head matchup, Obama holds a narrow edge over McCain, 45% to 43%, which falls within the margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. (In June, Obama was ahead by 12 points in the Times/Bloomberg poll, but other surveys at the time showed him with a narrower lead.)
More striking, however, is the drop in Obama's favorable rating. It has slid from 59% to 48% since the June poll. At the same time, his negative rating has risen from 27% to 35%. The bulk of that shift stems from Republicans souring on Obama amid ferocious attacks on the Democrat by McCain and his allies.
McCain forces have portrayed Obama as a naive celebrity who is unprepared to be president in dangerous times. A Navy aviator who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam, McCain has also suggested that Obama would put personal ambition ahead of America's interests. This is the same poll as reported earlier but with results for Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. Since the release of the last LA Times poll, we here at USAElectionPolls.com are making a strong committment to reporting the poll results for Nader and Barr. So enjoy!
Democratic voters are inclined not to want Hillary Clinton as Obama�s running mate. Independents who voted in the Democratic primaries don�t want her as the vice presidential candidate (46% to 30%), although nearly a quarter were not sure how they felt. A small plurality of Democratic women want Clinton as Obama�s running mate, while a majority of Democratic men don�t. But if he does choose her, a third of Democratic voters would be more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket than not (9% less likely); more than half said it would not have an effect on their vote. More than two out of five Democratic women said it would make them more likely, while more than six out of 10 men and nearly half of women said it would not effect their vote at all.
The enthusiasm factor is alive and well on the Democratic side, while the Republicans are not that excited about their candidate. More than 80% of Obama voters said they were enthusiastic about their candidate, including 47% who are very enthusiastic. It�s another matter for McCain. Just under half (45%) of McCain voters said they were enthusiastic about voting for him, but 51% were not enthused about the prospect. Women were split as to whether they were enthusiastic or not about their vote for McCain, while men were less enthusiastic (55% not enthuasiastic to 41% enthusiastic); 51% of voters who are part of the religious right are unenthusiastic in their vote for the Republican nominee, while 49% of evangelicals (and 48% of white evangelicals) feel the same way. These groups, along with 58% of self-described conservatives appear to begrudgingly voting for McCain, while the Democrats are motivated and energized by their candidate (as seen by such things as 1.4 million voters who have given less than $100 to Obama�s campaign).
Despite his challenges, Obama holds many advantages on the eve of two critical events: his selection of a running mate and his formal crowning as the Democratic nominee at the party's national convention next week in Denver. By Labor Day, Obama hopes to regain -- and build upon -- the momentum he had after he defeated Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton in June. For now, voters favor Obama on the economy, the issue they rank as most important. Also, independents, a crucial swing bloc, are leaning toward Obama. And Obama's supporters remain more enthusiastic than McCain's, a sign that the Democratic candidate may be able to turn out more voters.
The Republican Party's dismal standing under President Bush also remains a drag on McCain's candidacy: 75% of voters say the country has veered onto the wrong track.
"McCain has more experience, but experience isn't everything," poll respondent John Ritts of Towanda, Pa., said in a follow-up interview. A retired teacher and former Republican whose dissatisfaction with Bush drove him to switch his party affiliation to independent, Ritts supports Obama.
In a head-to-head matchup, Obama holds a narrow edge over McCain, 45% to 43%, which falls within the margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. (In June, Obama was ahead by 12 points in the Times/Bloomberg poll, but other surveys at the time showed him with a narrower lead.)
More striking, however, is the drop in Obama's favorable rating. It has slid from 59% to 48% since the June poll. At the same time, his negative rating has risen from 27% to 35%. The bulk of that shift stems from Republicans souring on Obama amid ferocious attacks on the Democrat by McCain and his allies.
McCain forces have portrayed Obama as a naive celebrity who is unprepared to be president in dangerous times. A Navy aviator who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam, McCain has also suggested that Obama would put personal ambition ahead of America's interests. This is the same poll as reported earlier but with results for Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. Since the release of the last LA Times poll, we here at USAElectionPolls.com are making a strong committment to reporting the poll results for Nader and Barr. So enjoy!
Democratic voters are inclined not to want Hillary Clinton as Obama�s running mate. Independents who voted in the Democratic primaries don�t want her as the vice presidential candidate (46% to 30%), although nearly a quarter were not sure how they felt. A small plurality of Democratic women want Clinton as Obama�s running mate, while a majority of Democratic men don�t. But if he does choose her, a third of Democratic voters would be more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket than not (9% less likely); more than half said it would not have an effect on their vote. More than two out of five Democratic women said it would make them more likely, while more than six out of 10 men and nearly half of women said it would not effect their vote at all.
The enthusiasm factor is alive and well on the Democratic side, while the Republicans are not that excited about their candidate. More than 80% of Obama voters said they were enthusiastic about their candidate, including 47% who are very enthusiastic. It�s another matter for McCain. Just under half (45%) of McCain voters said they were enthusiastic about voting for him, but 51% were not enthused about the prospect. Women were split as to whether they were enthusiastic or not about their vote for McCain, while men were less enthusiastic (55% not enthuasiastic to 41% enthusiastic); 51% of voters who are part of the religious right are unenthusiastic in their vote for the Republican nominee, while 49% of evangelicals (and 48% of white evangelicals) feel the same way. These groups, along with 58% of self-described conservatives appear to begrudgingly voting for McCain, while the Democrats are motivated and energized by their candidate (as seen by such things as 1.4 million voters who have given less than $100 to Obama�s campaign). In contrast, many voters said McCain was the more experienced candidate and better equipped to protect the nation against terrorism -- but they ranked those concerns below economic issues.
McCain suffers from a pronounced "passion gap," especially among conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support. Among voters who described themselves as conservative, 58% said they would vote for McCain; 15% said they would vote for Obama, 14% said they would vote for someone else, and 13% said they were undecided. By contrast, 79% of voters who described themselves as liberal said they planned to vote for Obama.
"I'm a Republican . . . but I don't like some of the things McCain voted for in the Senate, especially immigration," said poll respondent Mary Dasen, 77, a retired United Way manager in Oscoda, Mich., who said she was undecided. "There's a big chance I might stay home and not vote."
Even among voters who said they planned to vote for McCain, more than half said they were "not enthusiastic" about their chosen candidate; 45% said they were enthusiastic. By contrast, 81% of Obama voters said they were enthusiastic, and almost half called themselves "very enthusiastic," a level of zeal found in 13% of McCain's supporters.
"McCain is not capturing the full extent of the conservative base the way President Bush did in 2000 and 2004," said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus. "Among conservatives, evangelicals and voters who identify themselves as part of the religious right, he is polling less than 60%.
"Meanwhile, Obama is doing well among a broad range of voters. He's running ahead among women, black voters and other minorities. He's running roughly even among white voters and independents."
