Democrat Polls
Survey USA
Date: 5/28/08
Michigan
Added: 5/28/08
Quote: . The numbers could move. Nearly one-third -- 31% -- of those polled said they could be persuaded to change their minds by Election Day Nov. 4. Perhaps most striking is Obama's 17-point edge among independent voters -- a bloc McCain has cultivated since he first ran for president in 2000. Most experts say independents will decide this year's race because both candidates have strong support from core voters in their respective parties. The poll shows the economy is by far the most important issue to voters -- 50% ranked it tops -- followed distantly by the war in Iraq, gas and oil prices and health care. And the poll showed Michiganders think Obama is slightly better equipped to help solve economic issues that have wrought havoc in Michigan. Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage were top issues for only 10% of those polled. This is the first Free Press/Local 4 Michigan Poll on the presidential race since the candidates became the presumptive nominees. It was conducted Sunday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It also shows: * Obama leads 80%-13% among Detroit voters. * Obama leads 45%-41% among voters in suburban Oakland and Macomb counties. * McCain leads among white voters statewide, 46%-38%. * Obama gets 92% of African Americans. * McCain holds a 13-point lead among Catholic voters; Protestants are evenly split, although evangelicals favor McCain by 2-1. * Among non-Christians, Obama leads 66%-13%. * Third-party candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader have a negligible impact on the race, if anything hurting McCain more than Obama. * Among first-time voters, Obama has a 2-1 edge. Men: Obama 40, McCain 39. Women: Obama 54, McCain 27. Michigan�s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a -- % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as �Leans Democratic� in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article. Michigan has been harder hit economically than many parts of the country, and over half of the state�s voters (52%) now say economic issues are their number one concern in this election, up from 49% in July. National security, which was the top issue in the 2004 election cycle, is now viewed that way by only 18%. Voters see both men virtually tied when asked which will be better for the auto industry � 43% say McCain, 44% Obama. But 57% say McCain will be better for the oil industry versus 26% who think that of his Democratic opponent. Sixty-three percent (63%) say finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans consume, but 29% see cutting energy usage as more important. Forty-four percent (44%) say high gas prices are more likely than government regulation to reduce U.S. energy consumption, although 35% think government regulation will be more effective. Now 33% of Michigan voters think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, up for the second month in a row. But over half (53%) still rate his performance poor, down from 57% in July. Most of the movement in the last month has been among white voters and Republicans. In June PPP showed Obama earning 19% of the GOP vote but that is now down to 9%. McCain has a turned a small disadvantage with white voters into a 50-40 lead. The race in Michigan could come down to who earns the votes of independents. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don�t identify with either party are. �Michigan is going to be a vital state this fall,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �If Barack Obama doesn�t win here, he�ll probably have to win three or four states that went Republican the last time around. If John McCain can�t take the state then he won�t be able to afford to lose more than one state that George W. Bush won in 2004. The candidates don�t have a lot of room for error in Michigan.� Michigan women voters back Obama 50 - 38 percent, while men back McCain 47 - 42 percent. White voters back McCain 48 - 40 percent, as black voters support Obama 90 - 4 percent. The Democrat leads 51 - 41 percent among voters 18 to 34, a big drop, and squeaks by 46 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54. Voters over 55 tie 43 - 43 percent. Voters split on who better fits their idea of a First Lady, with Obama at 29 percent and McCain at 28 percent. Women prefer Obama 33 - 25 percent as men like McCain 31 - 25 percent. "Just as we thought, it's going to be a close race in Michigan," said David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University. The numbers are an improvement for Obama over EPIC-MRA's last survey, in late May, which found McCain leading by 4 points. It's also a better showing for McCain than in other recent polls: Real Clear Politics, a Website that tracks and averages political polls, shows Obama with a 7.7-point lead in its Michigan polling average. The telephone survey of 600 likely voters, conducted July 13-16, shows the Michigan electorate views both McCain and Obama favorably. But each candidate has areas of policy, demographic and geographic strength -- and each has significant weaknesses. Obama, buoyed by near-universal support from African-Americans, is well ahead in Detroit. He holds a big lead with young voters, and a smaller edge among those who name the economy as their primary concern, and gets better marks as the candidate most likely to bring change. McCain leads among white voters, but not by a large enough margin to counter Obama's lead with African-Americans. He is ahead across the state outside of Metro Detroit, especially in northern and western Michigan. McCain gets higher marks as a candidate voters trust, and to handle terrorism and homeland security. Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain to eight percentage points in the economic battleground state of Michigan, with much of his new support coming from voters who have moved away from the Republican hopeful. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds 47% of Michigan voters favoring Obama while 39% back McCain. A month ago Obama had 45% support and McCain tallied 42%. When leaners are factored in, Obama leads by the same margin of eight points, 50% to 42%. In May McCain had a statistically insignificant one-point lead, but Obama has been gaining ground since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race. McCain enjoys only a 46% to 41% lead over Obama among male voters now, down from a 19-percentage point lead in May. The Democrat shows a slight uptick among women voters who have consistently supported him over McCain. Now women favor Obama 51% to 35%. While party regulars overwhelmingly support their respective candidates, Obama has turned it around with unaffiliated voters. Last month McCain had a five-point lead, down from 13 points a month earlier. Now Obama leads among unaffiliated voters 42% to 35%. One out of two Michigan voters (49%) now rate economic issues as the most important, far outdistancing their number two concern which is national security. Like most voters throughout the country, 62% in Michigan believe that offshore oil drilling should be resumed and 53% believe that gas prices will fall accordingly. . . .
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 5/12/08
Michigan
Added: 5/12/08
Quote: . The numbers could move. Nearly one-third -- 31% -- of those polled said they could be persuaded to change their minds by Election Day Nov. 4. Perhaps most striking is Obama's 17-point edge among independent voters -- a bloc McCain has cultivated since he first ran for president in 2000. Most experts say independents will decide this year's race because both candidates have strong support from core voters in their respective parties. The poll shows the economy is by far the most important issue to voters -- 50% ranked it tops -- followed distantly by the war in Iraq, gas and oil prices and health care. And the poll showed Michiganders think Obama is slightly better equipped to help solve economic issues that have wrought havoc in Michigan. Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage were top issues for only 10% of those polled. This is the first Free Press/Local 4 Michigan Poll on the presidential race since the candidates became the presumptive nominees. It was conducted Sunday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It also shows: * Obama leads 80%-13% among Detroit voters. * Obama leads 45%-41% among voters in suburban Oakland and Macomb counties. * McCain leads among white voters statewide, 46%-38%. * Obama gets 92% of African Americans. * McCain holds a 13-point lead among Catholic voters; Protestants are evenly split, although evangelicals favor McCain by 2-1. * Among non-Christians, Obama leads 66%-13%. * Third-party candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader have a negligible impact on the race, if anything hurting McCain more than Obama. * Among first-time voters, Obama has a 2-1 edge. Men: Obama 40, McCain 39. Women: Obama 54, McCain 27. Michigan�s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a -- % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as �Leans Democratic� in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article. Michigan has been harder hit economically than many parts of the country, and over half of the state�s voters (52%) now say economic issues are their number one concern in this election, up from 49% in July. National security, which was the top issue in the 2004 election cycle, is now viewed that way by only 18%. Voters see both men virtually tied when asked which will be better for the auto industry � 43% say McCain, 44% Obama. But 57% say McCain will be better for the oil industry versus 26% who think that of his Democratic opponent. Sixty-three percent (63%) say finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans consume, but 29% see cutting energy usage as more important. Forty-four percent (44%) say high gas prices are more likely than government regulation to reduce U.S. energy consumption, although 35% think government regulation will be more effective. Now 33% of Michigan voters think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, up for the second month in a row. But over half (53%) still rate his performance poor, down from 57% in July. Most of the movement in the last month has been among white voters and Republicans. In June PPP showed Obama earning 19% of the GOP vote but that is now down to 9%. McCain has a turned a small disadvantage with white voters into a 50-40 lead. The race in Michigan could come down to who earns the votes of independents. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don�t identify with either party are. �Michigan is going to be a vital state this fall,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �If Barack Obama doesn�t win here, he�ll probably have to win three or four states that went Republican the last time around. If John McCain can�t take the state then he won�t be able to afford to lose more than one state that George W. Bush won in 2004. The candidates don�t have a lot of room for error in Michigan.� Michigan women voters back Obama 50 - 38 percent, while men back McCain 47 - 42 percent. White voters back McCain 48 - 40 percent, as black voters support Obama 90 - 4 percent. The Democrat leads 51 - 41 percent among voters 18 to 34, a big drop, and squeaks by 46 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54. Voters over 55 tie 43 - 43 percent. Voters split on who better fits their idea of a First Lady, with Obama at 29 percent and McCain at 28 percent. Women prefer Obama 33 - 25 percent as men like McCain 31 - 25 percent. "Just as we thought, it's going to be a close race in Michigan," said David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University. The numbers are an improvement for Obama over EPIC-MRA's last survey, in late May, which found McCain leading by 4 points. It's also a better showing for McCain than in other recent polls: Real Clear Politics, a Website that tracks and averages political polls, shows Obama with a 7.7-point lead in its Michigan polling average. The telephone survey of 600 likely voters, conducted July 13-16, shows the Michigan electorate views both McCain and Obama favorably. But each candidate has areas of policy, demographic and geographic strength -- and each has significant weaknesses. Obama, buoyed by near-universal support from African-Americans, is well ahead in Detroit. He holds a big lead with young voters, and a smaller edge among those who name the economy as their primary concern, and gets better marks as the candidate most likely to bring change. McCain leads among white voters, but not by a large enough margin to counter Obama's lead with African-Americans. He is ahead across the state outside of Metro Detroit, especially in northern and western Michigan. McCain gets higher marks as a candidate voters trust, and to handle terrorism and homeland security. Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain to eight percentage points in the economic battleground state of Michigan, with much of his new support coming from voters who have moved away from the Republican hopeful. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds 47% of Michigan voters favoring Obama while 39% back McCain. A month ago Obama had 45% support and McCain tallied 42%. When leaners are factored in, Obama leads by the same margin of eight points, 50% to 42%. In May McCain had a statistically insignificant one-point lead, but Obama has been gaining ground since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race. McCain enjoys only a 46% to 41% lead over Obama among male voters now, down from a 19-percentage point lead in May. The Democrat shows a slight uptick among women voters who have consistently supported him over McCain. Now women favor Obama 51% to 35%. While party regulars overwhelmingly support their respective candidates, Obama has turned it around with unaffiliated voters. Last month McCain had a five-point lead, down from 13 points a month earlier. Now Obama leads among unaffiliated voters 42% to 35%. One out of two Michigan voters (49%) now rate economic issues as the most important, far outdistancing their number two concern which is national security. Like most voters throughout the country, 62% in Michigan believe that offshore oil drilling should be resumed and 53% believe that gas prices will fall accordingly. . . . . . .
EPIC/MRA for The Detroit News, WXYZ, et al.
Date: 5/29/08
Michigan
Added: 5/29/08
Quote: . The numbers could move. Nearly one-third -- 31% -- of those polled said they could be persuaded to change their minds by Election Day Nov. 4. Perhaps most striking is Obama's 17-point edge among independent voters -- a bloc McCain has cultivated since he first ran for president in 2000. Most experts say independents will decide this year's race because both candidates have strong support from core voters in their respective parties. The poll shows the economy is by far the most important issue to voters -- 50% ranked it tops -- followed distantly by the war in Iraq, gas and oil prices and health care. And the poll showed Michiganders think Obama is slightly better equipped to help solve economic issues that have wrought havoc in Michigan. Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage were top issues for only 10% of those polled. This is the first Free Press/Local 4 Michigan Poll on the presidential race since the candidates became the presumptive nominees. It was conducted Sunday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It also shows: * Obama leads 80%-13% among Detroit voters. * Obama leads 45%-41% among voters in suburban Oakland and Macomb counties. * McCain leads among white voters statewide, 46%-38%. * Obama gets 92% of African Americans. * McCain holds a 13-point lead among Catholic voters; Protestants are evenly split, although evangelicals favor McCain by 2-1. * Among non-Christians, Obama leads 66%-13%. * Third-party candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader have a negligible impact on the race, if anything hurting McCain more than Obama. * Among first-time voters, Obama has a 2-1 edge. Men: Obama 40, McCain 39. Women: Obama 54, McCain 27. Michigan�s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a -- % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as �Leans Democratic� in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article. Michigan has been harder hit economically than many parts of the country, and over half of the state�s voters (52%) now say economic issues are their number one concern in this election, up from 49% in July. National security, which was the top issue in the 2004 election cycle, is now viewed that way by only 18%. Voters see both men virtually tied when asked which will be better for the auto industry � 43% say McCain, 44% Obama. But 57% say McCain will be better for the oil industry versus 26% who think that of his Democratic opponent. Sixty-three percent (63%) say finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans consume, but 29% see cutting energy usage as more important. Forty-four percent (44%) say high gas prices are more likely than government regulation to reduce U.S. energy consumption, although 35% think government regulation will be more effective. Now 33% of Michigan voters think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, up for the second month in a row. But over half (53%) still rate his performance poor, down from 57% in July. Most of the movement in the last month has been among white voters and Republicans. In June PPP showed Obama earning 19% of the GOP vote but that is now down to 9%. McCain has a turned a small disadvantage with white voters into a 50-40 lead. The race in Michigan could come down to who earns the votes of independents. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don�t identify with either party are. �Michigan is going to be a vital state this fall,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �If Barack Obama doesn�t win here, he�ll probably have to win three or four states that went Republican the last time around. If John McCain can�t take the state then he won�t be able to afford to lose more than one state that George W. Bush won in 2004. The candidates don�t have a lot of room for error in Michigan.� Michigan women voters back Obama 50 - 38 percent, while men back McCain 47 - 42 percent. White voters back McCain 48 - 40 percent, as black voters support Obama 90 - 4 percent. The Democrat leads 51 - 41 percent among voters 18 to 34, a big drop, and squeaks by 46 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54. Voters over 55 tie 43 - 43 percent. Voters split on who better fits their idea of a First Lady, with Obama at 29 percent and McCain at 28 percent. Women prefer Obama 33 - 25 percent as men like McCain 31 - 25 percent. "Just as we thought, it's going to be a close race in Michigan," said David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University. The numbers are an improvement for Obama over EPIC-MRA's last survey, in late May, which found McCain leading by 4 points. It's also a better showing for McCain than in other recent polls: Real Clear Politics, a Website that tracks and averages political polls, shows Obama with a 7.7-point lead in its Michigan polling average. The telephone survey of 600 likely voters, conducted July 13-16, shows the Michigan electorate views both McCain and Obama favorably. But each candidate has areas of policy, demographic and geographic strength -- and each has significant weaknesses. Obama, buoyed by near-universal support from African-Americans, is well ahead in Detroit. He holds a big lead with young voters, and a smaller edge among those who name the economy as their primary concern, and gets better marks as the candidate most likely to bring change. McCain leads among white voters, but not by a large enough margin to counter Obama's lead with African-Americans. He is ahead across the state outside of Metro Detroit, especially in northern and western Michigan. McCain gets higher marks as a candidate voters trust, and to handle terrorism and homeland security. Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain to eight percentage points in the economic battleground state of Michigan, with much of his new support coming from voters who have moved away from the Republican hopeful. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds 47% of Michigan voters favoring Obama while 39% back McCain. A month ago Obama had 45% support and McCain tallied 42%. When leaners are factored in, Obama leads by the same margin of eight points, 50% to 42%. In May McCain had a statistically insignificant one-point lead, but Obama has been gaining ground since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race. McCain enjoys only a 46% to 41% lead over Obama among male voters now, down from a 19-percentage point lead in May. The Democrat shows a slight uptick among women voters who have consistently supported him over McCain. Now women favor Obama 51% to 35%. While party regulars overwhelmingly support their respective candidates, Obama has turned it around with unaffiliated voters. Last month McCain had a five-point lead, down from 13 points a month earlier. Now Obama leads among unaffiliated voters 42% to 35%. One out of two Michigan voters (49%) now rate economic issues as the most important, far outdistancing their number two concern which is national security. Like most voters throughout the country, 62% in Michigan believe that offshore oil drilling should be resumed and 53% believe that gas prices will fall accordingly. . . . . . . . . .
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Michigan polls.
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