2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Minnesota Public Radio Humphrey Institute
Date: 8/7-17
Minnesota
Added: 8/22/08

Quote:

The new poll likely will stoke both sides' efforts during the final 51 days until the election, triggering a barrage of advertising, grass-roots politicking and, potentially, stepped-up visits by the candidates.

The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.

Conducted a week after the Republican National Convention was held in St. Paul, the poll likely reflects -- at least in part -- the traditional bounce candidates enjoy after being in the spotlight.

Part of the rise in McCain's fortunes nationally has been attributed to his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a move that has energized his party's conservative base. One Month, Two Conventions, and Two VP Picks Later, Presidential Race Unchanged in Minnesota: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 09/12/08, 53 days to Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Today, it's Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Obama and McCain are each up two points overall. Little has changed, and what changes have occurred appear to have offset one another. Among men, McCain had led by 3, now leads by 5. Among women, Obama had led by 9, still leads by 9. Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 4, now leads by 5. Among voters who are older than John McCain, a flip: McCain had led by 4, now trails by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, a flip in the opposite direction; Obama had led by 3, now trails by 3. 1 in 10 Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents favor McCain by 9 points, up from 2 points last month -- but at the same time, the percentage of Minnesota's likely voters who identify themselves as Independents has fallen from 24% last month to 16% today, blunting the impact and increasing the margin of error associated with this 7 point McCain climb. In NE Minnesota, McCain today leads by 14 points, a flip from last month, when Obama led by 8. In Western MN, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 3, an effective tie. In Southern Minnesota, the two candidates remain tied. In the Twin Cities area, Obama moves from a tie to a 6-point lead. It appears to be a similar story in Minnesota, where the Republicans are holding their national convention this week.

The poll indicates that Obama has a 12-point lead over McCain, 53 percent to 41 percent.

That's up slightly from a 10-point lead Obama held in a Humphrey Institute survey taken last month.

"It's important to note that today's polls don't reflect any boost McCain might get from the GOP convention, because nearly all the interviews were done before the festivities started in St. Paul," Holland said. "This could be Obama's high-water mark in those states." The MPR/Humphrey Institute results contrast sharply with three other recent polls that showed a much tighter contest in Minnesota.

"Obviously Barack Obama was not on stage, and McCain had it all to himself," he said. "So you want to ask was that poll reflective of the general state of play in Minnesota? Because for the most part, polling over the three months before Barack Obama went on vacation showed the race as a double-digit Obama lead."

The poll found a sizable gender gap in Minnesota. Women voters preferred Obama over McCain by 16 points, while men were split nearly even between the two candidates.

Survey USA
Date: 8/13-14
Minnesota
Added: 8/19/08

Quote:

The new poll likely will stoke both sides' efforts during the final 51 days until the election, triggering a barrage of advertising, grass-roots politicking and, potentially, stepped-up visits by the candidates.

The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.

Conducted a week after the Republican National Convention was held in St. Paul, the poll likely reflects -- at least in part -- the traditional bounce candidates enjoy after being in the spotlight.

Part of the rise in McCain's fortunes nationally has been attributed to his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a move that has energized his party's conservative base. One Month, Two Conventions, and Two VP Picks Later, Presidential Race Unchanged in Minnesota: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 09/12/08, 53 days to Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Today, it's Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Obama and McCain are each up two points overall. Little has changed, and what changes have occurred appear to have offset one another. Among men, McCain had led by 3, now leads by 5. Among women, Obama had led by 9, still leads by 9. Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 4, now leads by 5. Among voters who are older than John McCain, a flip: McCain had led by 4, now trails by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, a flip in the opposite direction; Obama had led by 3, now trails by 3. 1 in 10 Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents favor McCain by 9 points, up from 2 points last month -- but at the same time, the percentage of Minnesota's likely voters who identify themselves as Independents has fallen from 24% last month to 16% today, blunting the impact and increasing the margin of error associated with this 7 point McCain climb. In NE Minnesota, McCain today leads by 14 points, a flip from last month, when Obama led by 8. In Western MN, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 3, an effective tie. In Southern Minnesota, the two candidates remain tied. In the Twin Cities area, Obama moves from a tie to a 6-point lead. It appears to be a similar story in Minnesota, where the Republicans are holding their national convention this week.

The poll indicates that Obama has a 12-point lead over McCain, 53 percent to 41 percent.

That's up slightly from a 10-point lead Obama held in a Humphrey Institute survey taken last month.

"It's important to note that today's polls don't reflect any boost McCain might get from the GOP convention, because nearly all the interviews were done before the festivities started in St. Paul," Holland said. "This could be Obama's high-water mark in those states." The MPR/Humphrey Institute results contrast sharply with three other recent polls that showed a much tighter contest in Minnesota.

"Obviously Barack Obama was not on stage, and McCain had it all to himself," he said. "So you want to ask was that poll reflective of the general state of play in Minnesota? Because for the most part, polling over the three months before Barack Obama went on vacation showed the race as a double-digit Obama lead."

The poll found a sizable gender gap in Minnesota. Women voters preferred Obama over McCain by 16 points, while men were split nearly even between the two candidates. Battleground Minnesota -- Obama and McCain In Fierce Fight: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 08/15/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Today, it's Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error. Obama leads by 8 points in NE Minnesota and by 5 in Western Minnesota. In the Twin Cities area and in southern Minnesota, the two tie. Half in Minnesota say the economy is the most important issue, and on that issue, Obama leads 50% to 44%. 83% of Conservatives back McCain. 82% of Liberals back Obama. Moderates break 5:3 for Obama. Obama is up 15 points among the less affluent. McCain is up 5 points among the more affluent.McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 3; among women, Obama leads by 9 -- a 12 point gender gap. Among those voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 4. Among those voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 3. 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, a wash. Independents split.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 8/13
Minnesota
Added: 8/15/08

Quote:

The new poll likely will stoke both sides' efforts during the final 51 days until the election, triggering a barrage of advertising, grass-roots politicking and, potentially, stepped-up visits by the candidates.

The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.

Conducted a week after the Republican National Convention was held in St. Paul, the poll likely reflects -- at least in part -- the traditional bounce candidates enjoy after being in the spotlight.

Part of the rise in McCain's fortunes nationally has been attributed to his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a move that has energized his party's conservative base. One Month, Two Conventions, and Two VP Picks Later, Presidential Race Unchanged in Minnesota: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 09/12/08, 53 days to Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Today, it's Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Obama and McCain are each up two points overall. Little has changed, and what changes have occurred appear to have offset one another. Among men, McCain had led by 3, now leads by 5. Among women, Obama had led by 9, still leads by 9. Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 4, now leads by 5. Among voters who are older than John McCain, a flip: McCain had led by 4, now trails by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, a flip in the opposite direction; Obama had led by 3, now trails by 3. 1 in 10 Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents favor McCain by 9 points, up from 2 points last month -- but at the same time, the percentage of Minnesota's likely voters who identify themselves as Independents has fallen from 24% last month to 16% today, blunting the impact and increasing the margin of error associated with this 7 point McCain climb. In NE Minnesota, McCain today leads by 14 points, a flip from last month, when Obama led by 8. In Western MN, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 3, an effective tie. In Southern Minnesota, the two candidates remain tied. In the Twin Cities area, Obama moves from a tie to a 6-point lead. It appears to be a similar story in Minnesota, where the Republicans are holding their national convention this week.

The poll indicates that Obama has a 12-point lead over McCain, 53 percent to 41 percent.

That's up slightly from a 10-point lead Obama held in a Humphrey Institute survey taken last month.

"It's important to note that today's polls don't reflect any boost McCain might get from the GOP convention, because nearly all the interviews were done before the festivities started in St. Paul," Holland said. "This could be Obama's high-water mark in those states." The MPR/Humphrey Institute results contrast sharply with three other recent polls that showed a much tighter contest in Minnesota.

"Obviously Barack Obama was not on stage, and McCain had it all to himself," he said. "So you want to ask was that poll reflective of the general state of play in Minnesota? Because for the most part, polling over the three months before Barack Obama went on vacation showed the race as a double-digit Obama lead."

The poll found a sizable gender gap in Minnesota. Women voters preferred Obama over McCain by 16 points, while men were split nearly even between the two candidates. Battleground Minnesota -- Obama and McCain In Fierce Fight: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 08/15/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Today, it's Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error. Obama leads by 8 points in NE Minnesota and by 5 in Western Minnesota. In the Twin Cities area and in southern Minnesota, the two tie. Half in Minnesota say the economy is the most important issue, and on that issue, Obama leads 50% to 44%. 83% of Conservatives back McCain. 82% of Liberals back Obama. Moderates break 5:3 for Obama. Obama is up 15 points among the less affluent. McCain is up 5 points among the more affluent.McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 3; among women, Obama leads by 9 -- a 12 point gender gap. Among those voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 4. Among those voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 3. 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, a wash. Independents split. Picking Minnesota�s Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate might cost McCain more votes in the state than he will gain. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Minnesota voters say they are less likely to vote for the GOP candidate if Pawlenty is the vice presidential nominee, while 28% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say it will have no impact on how they vote.

Nearly a third of unaffiliated voters (32%), however, say putting Pawlenty on the GOP ticket makes them less likely to vote for it, while 22% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain.

Only 11% say McCain is Very Likely to pick Pawlenty.

Minnesota has gone for the Democratic presidential candidates in the last eight elections. John Kerry won the state 51% to 48% over President Bush in 2004.

The Senate race in Minnesota between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken remains a toss-up.

Like voters nationwide, 42% in Minnesota rank economic issues as their number one concern in this election cycle, roughly the same as last month. National security, which topped election concerns in 2004, is now viewed that way by only 23%.

A solid majority of Minnesota voters (71%) think the upcoming Republican National Convention in St. Paul will have a positive short-term impact on business and tourism. Far fewer (45%) believe the convention will have long-term impact in those areas, with nearly as many (40%) saying it will have no impact.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Minnesota polls.

Traffic During 2008 Election

2008 Election Results - Presidential

2008 Predicted Electoral Math

2008 Democratic Primary Results

2008 Republican Primary Results

2008 Independent Candidates

Nader	Bob Barr
McKinney	Baldwin

Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

Election Polls