The MPR/Humphrey Institute results contrast sharply with three other recent polls that showed a much tighter contest in Minnesota. "Obviously Barack Obama was not on stage, and McCain had it all to himself," he said. "So you want to ask was that poll reflective of the general state of play in Minnesota? Because for the most part, polling over the three months before Barack Obama went on vacation showed the race as a double-digit Obama lead."
The poll found a sizable gender gap in Minnesota. Women voters preferred Obama over McCain by 16 points, while men were split nearly even between the two candidates. Battleground Minnesota -- Obama and McCain In Fierce Fight: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 08/15/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Today, it's Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error. Obama leads by 8 points in NE Minnesota and by 5 in Western Minnesota. In the Twin Cities area and in southern Minnesota, the two tie. Half in Minnesota say the economy is the most important issue, and on that issue, Obama leads 50% to 44%. 83% of Conservatives back McCain. 82% of Liberals back Obama. Moderates break 5:3 for Obama. Obama is up 15 points among the less affluent. McCain is up 5 points among the more affluent.McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 3; among women, Obama leads by 9 -- a 12 point gender gap. Among those voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 4. Among those voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 3. 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, a wash. Independents split. Picking Minnesota�s Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate might cost McCain more votes in the state than he will gain. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Minnesota voters say they are less likely to vote for the GOP candidate if Pawlenty is the vice presidential nominee, while 28% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say it will have no impact on how they vote.
Nearly a third of unaffiliated voters (32%), however, say putting Pawlenty on the GOP ticket makes them less likely to vote for it, while 22% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain.
Only 11% say McCain is Very Likely to pick Pawlenty.
Minnesota has gone for the Democratic presidential candidates in the last eight elections. John Kerry won the state 51% to 48% over President Bush in 2004.
The Senate race in Minnesota between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken remains a toss-up.
Like voters nationwide, 42% in Minnesota rank economic issues as their number one concern in this election cycle, roughly the same as last month. National security, which topped election concerns in 2004, is now viewed that way by only 23%.
A solid majority of Minnesota voters (71%) think the upcoming Republican National Convention in St. Paul will have a positive short-term impact on business and tourism. Far fewer (45%) believe the convention will have long-term impact in those areas, with nearly as many (40%) saying it will have no impact. Men: Obama 43, McCain 34. Women: Obama 54, McCain 30. In Minnesota this month, Obama leads 42% to 35% among voters not affiliated with either major party. Like in many states, the Democrat has a big lead among women (54% to 35%) but a marginal lead among men (44% to 40%). Obama leads among voters from every age group, but performs strongest among younger voters.
As in all states, a solid plurality of voters in Minnesota (43%) choose the economy as the top issue of Election 2008. Among those voters, Obama has a 63% to 24% advantage. McCain has the lead among voters who say national security issues are most important, 60% to 32%. However, just 17% of Minnesota voters see this as the top issue of the upcoming election.
When it comes to the War on Terror, 54% of voters in Minnesota think the United States and its allies are winning, as opposed to 21% who think the terrorists are winning. Those results are a bit higher than those found nationally. Most voters (59%) agree with Obama in that Iraq is not the �central front� of the War on Terror, while 39% think Afghanistan holds that spot. Half of voters (50%) say Afghanistan is a bigger threat than Iraq to the U.S..
Nationally, belief is growing that the media is trying to help Obama win. In Minnesota, 47% of voters agree. A third of voters (33%) think reporters provide unbiased coverage of the election and just 8% think reporters are trying to help McCain. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe reporters try to help the candidate they want to win when covering political news. Regarding media coverage of the ailing economy, 41% of voters think the media makes the situation sound worse than it really is, while 28% believe it provides an accurate picture. Obama tops McCain 51 - 38 percent with women, while men back McCain 49 - 42 percent. White voters split 45 - 45 percent. The Democrat leads 50 - 45 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split, with 45 percent for Obama and 44 percent for McCain with the Democrat up 46 - 42 percent among voters over 55. The favorability ratings of both McCain and Obama continue to climb in Minnesota. McCain is regarded favorably by 56% of voters, up from 54% in June, while 65% view the Democratic candidate in a similar light, a 5% increase since last month.
Forty-one percent (41%) of Minnesota voters regard the economy as the most important issue in the presidential campaign, with national security, the key issue in the 2004 election cycle, now ranked first by only 20%.
Unlike the majority of voters nationwide, 50% in Minnesota say it is more important to protect the environment than to reduce the record price of gas at the pump. Only 30% say reducing gas prices is more important.
While 48% favor overturning the ban on offshore oil drilling, a position first espoused by McCain and since endorsed by President Bush, 33% disagree. Again, unlike the majority nationwide, half of Minnesota voters (50%) do not believe offshore drilling is likely to drive down the price of gas. Only 41% believe it is likely to have that effect.
Forty-seven percent (47%) oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska, but 40% are in favor of it. Democrats in Congress have consistently opposed offshore drilling and the opening of ANWR for environmental reasons.
However, a majority of Minnesota voters (51%) oppose returning to 55 mph speed limits, and even more (56%) say that�s not the way to reduce gas and oil prices. Those figures are close to the national average.
Only 24% think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, down from 30% last month, while 58% rate his performance as poor. Nationally, the president continues to set record low ratings for job performance. . . . . . . . . . . .
