2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Survey USA
Date: 10/30-11/1
Minnesota
Added: 11/3/08

Quote:

In Minnesota, the Shorter Obama's Coattails, the Worse It Looks for Al Franken: 60 hours until votes are counted in Minnesota, Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain is back inside the margin of sampling error, according to SurveyUSA's final look at one of 2008's most interesting states. Obama 49%, McCain 46%, in interviewing underwritten by KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth and KAAL-TV Rochester, 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Obama led by 6 two weeks ago, now by 3.

The late break to the GOP is occurring among men and seniors. For each point McCain gains, the better it looks for Republican Norm Coleman's US Senate re-election bid. In 4 pre-election tracking polls, SurveyUSA has never shown Franken ahead. Other pollsters have.

The contest is close, fiercely fought, and Franken may in fact win. But in SurveyUSA's final numbers, it's Coleman 44%, Franken 39%. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, though down from 19% a month ago to 16% today, is a true spoiler. Barkley's supporters are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, and more likely to be pro-choice than pro-life.

If Barkley's supporters turn-out to vote but at the last instant turn-away from Barkley, Franken may out-perform these numbers. Minnesota's constitutional amendment, which would protect wetlands by raising the sales tax for 25 years, is too-close-to-call. Of those with an opinion, half tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote 'Yes,' half tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote 'No.' But more Minnesotans are not certain how they will vote on the amendment than are in either the 'Yes' group or the 'No' group. Any outcome is possible. 800 adults yielded 747 registered voters and 669 likely voters.

Star Tribune
Date: 10/29-31
Minnesota
Added: 11/2/00

Quote:

Nearly half of the 933 likely voters who were surveyed cited the economy and jobs as the single most important issue that will determine their vote on Tuesday; that's nearly triple the number who cited taxes and government spending, the second-ranking issue.

When asked which candidate would do a better job of dealing with the nation's teetering economy, 57 percent said Obama while 35 percent chose McCain.

Another source of strength for Obama is the fact that Minnesotans are more likely to identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans, 37 percent to 30 percent. Another 30 percent call themselves independents -- and Obama has a slight edge among them.

The current state of the presidential race in Minnesota closely mirrors national polls released Saturday. They showed Obama leading McCain by between 9 and 11 percentage points.

Although Minnesota voters have not backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, both campaigns regarded the state as a battleground this year -- and campaigned accordingly.

Minnesota Public Radio
Date: 10/24-28
Minnesota
Added: 10/30/08

Quote:

The MPR News/Humphrey Institute survey was conducted of 721 Minnesotans, including 451 likely voters, between Oct. 24 and Oct. 28. The margin of error is 4.25 points. For the smaller subgroup of 451 likely voters the margin of sampling error is larger, 4.6 percent.

University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs said it clearly looks like Obama will pick up Minnesota's 10 electoral votes.

"If I'm a John McCain supporter, I'm concerned," Jacobs said. "This is just not good news."

Jacobs said the economy is the top concern among Minnesotans polled. Jacobs said six out of 10 rate the economy and jobs as their top concern. Among those voters, Obama has a clear advantage over McCain.

"There's really no evidence here that McCain has been able to overcome the basic hurdles that he started the campaign with which is that the economy is working for Barack Obama," Jacobs said. "The financial crisis played just into the Obama strategy that the country is headed in the wrong direction. That's a view shared by more than eight out of 10 Minnesota voters. That's breaking decisively for Obama."

Jacobs said the poll also shows Obama has a large lead over McCain among independent voters. The poll shows that the Illinois senator has built a 33 point advantage over voters earning less than $50,000 a year, an indication that McCain's "Joe the plumber" strategy has not caught on here.

St Cloud State U
Date: 10/14-22
Minnesota
Added: 10/26/08

Quote:

A St. Cloud State University poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads Republican opponent John McCain 42 percent to 37 percent in Minnesota.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate race continues to display the volatility seen in polls throughout the season. After earlier surveys showed DFL challenger Al Franken with an edge, the SCSU poll shows Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman leading with 36 percent, compared with 27 percent for Franken. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley trails with 16 percent.

National Journal Financial Dynamics
Date: 10/16-20
Minnesota
Added: 10/24/08

Quote:

Similar patterns are evident in Minnesota and Wisconsin, where about seven in 10 voters in each state disapprove of Bush's performance. Among voters who approve of Bush, McCain leads Obama 9-to-1 in Minnesota and 11-to-1 in Wisconsin. But in Minnesota, Obama again draws about two-thirds of those who disapprove, while McCain wins just under one-fourth of them. In Wisconsin, the result is even more lopsided. There, nearly three-fourths of Bush disapprovers are voting for Obama, while just under one-fifth are backing McCain.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/22
Minnesota
Added: 10/24/08

Quote:

Just two weeks ago, Obama held a seven-point lead in the state. The latest poll marks the highest level of support the Democrat has received since tracking of the race began in February.

Obama holds the lead among unaffiliated voters, 54% to 42%. In the last survey, the candidates were nearly tied. The Democrat leads by over twenty percentage points among women and holds a 51% to 43% among men.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) are convinced Obama will win their state, while just 21% think that of McCain.

Obama is viewed favorably by 60% and unfavorably by 39% of voters in Minnesota. McCain�s ratings are 51% favorable, 48% unfavorable.

When it comes to the struggling economy, voters in Minnesota trust Obama more to handle current problems by a 54% to 42% margin. That could be partly due to the fact that 50% of voters in the state agree with Obama�s idea that spreading the wealth around is good for everybody, while 35% disagree.

Big10 Battleground
Date: 10/19-22
Minnesota
Added: 10/23/08

Survey USA
Date: 10/16-18
Minnesota
Added: 10/20/08

Quote:

Older Minnesota Voters Re-Think McCain; Obama Now On Top in Gopher State for 1st Time Since GOP Convention: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 10/19/08, sixteen days till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 17 days ago, Obama is up 4 points; McCain is down 3. In three previous SurveyUSA polls since mid-August, Obama had received 46% to 49% of the vote, McCain 46% or 47%. This is the first time either candidate has reached 50%.

Just after the Republican national convention, held in St. Paul, McCain led by 4 points among voters age 50+. Today, McCain trails by 12, a 16-point swing to the Democrat in 6 weeks. Among Independent voters, McCain had led by 9 just after the GOP convention, now trails by 6, a 15-point swing to the Democrat. There is movement to Obama among both men and women, and in the greater Twin Cities region.

Star Tribune
Date: 10/16-17
Minnesota
Added: 10/19/08

Quote:

Obama's consistent lead in Minnesota in recent weeks mirrors his sustained edge nationwide and in several battleground states.

The Gallup organization's most recent national daily tracking poll, released Saturday, showed Obama ahead of McCain 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters.

Obama also has pulled ahead in a handful of critical states such as Missouri and Virginia (by about six percentage points), Florida (about four points) and North Carolina (about two points).

Also, in two neighboring states that both campaigns have targeted -- Wisconsin and Iowa -- the race looks very much like it does in Minnesota, with Obama holding leads of more than 10 points in recent polls.

Just as it is nationally, the bedrock of Obama's support in Minnesota can be found among likely voters' worries about the wobbling economy. It is far and away the most important issue in the campaign, cited by half of Minnesota's likely voters. That's three times more than the next issue -- taxes and government spending -- cited by just 16 percent of respondents.

Asked which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, they favor Obama over McCain by a crushing 55 percent to 35 percent.

Quinnipiac WSJ WP
Date: 10/8-12
Minnesota
Added: 10/14/08

Quote:

In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) has slipped into a dead heat with his Democratic opponent Al Franken; Franken stands at 38 percent to 36 percent for Coleman and 18 percent for independent candidate Dean Barkley.

American Research Group
Date: 10/4-7
Minnesota
Added: 10/9/08

Minnesota Public Radio News Humphrey Institute Poll
Date: 10/3-10/5
Minnesota
Added: 10/7/08

Quote:

Obama�s surge after last week�s events results from two general factors. First, the financial crisis and the culmination of congressional action increased the perception that Obama would do a better job handling the problems in the investment banking industry. Before October 2nd, the evaluations of the Obama�s and McCain�s handling of the investment banking problems were comparable � the Democrat held a narrow 4 point margin. In the days after October 2nd, however, Obama opened up a substantial 14 point advantage � 52 percent to 38 percent.

Vin Weber and other prominent Republicans warned that the opposition by House Republicans would �tarnish� the brand of the Republican Party for managing the economy and boost the Democratic Party�s reputation. Indeed, the dramatic events in Washington and other developments widened the gap between Minnesotans identifying with the Democratic Party as compared to the Republican Party from a 10 point margin to a 15 point margin.

Star Tribune PSRA
Date: 9/30-10/2
Minnesota
Added: 10/5/08

Quote:

The poll's findings come at a time when polls in several other battleground states and nationally are showing a sudden and significant shift to Obama. Gallup's daily national tracking poll released Friday showed Obama leading McCain by 7 percentage points.

Statewide polls conducted last week show Obama overtaking McCain in such key battleground states as Ohio, Virginia and Florida. In Florida, for example, the last four polls have shown Obama with leads of between three and eight percentage points; in the weeks prior, Obama trailed by as many as 10 points.

In Minnesota, for decades the most reliably Democratic state in presidential elections, a CNN/Time poll conducted last weekend showed Obama ahead, 54 percent to 43 percent. However, a Survey USA poll conducted last week showed McCain ahead among the state's likely voters, 47 percent to 46 percent.

Survey USA
Date: 9/30-10/1
Minnesota
Added: 10/3/08

Quote:

Minnesota Presidential Teeter Totter Tips Toward McCain: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 10/02/08, 33 days from the vote, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. The nominal advantage today goes to McCain, who is atop Obama 1 percentage point, 47% to 46%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. But: Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 20 days ago, Obama is down 3 points. How much of this is movement and how much of this is "noise" is unclear. Minnesota behaves unlike other states in some respects. Among women, there is movement to McCain, at a time when McCain is losing ground among women elsewhere. Among voters younger than Obama, there movement to McCain, at a time when Obama is consolidating support among young voters elsewhere. Among voters older than McCain, there is movement to Obama, at a time when older voters elsewhere are sticking by McCain. In Western MN, which abuts the Dakotas, there is movement to McCain. In Northeastern MN, which overhangs Michigan, there is see-sawing back to Obama. Complicating this analysis is the emergence of a possible protest vote. 12% of Independents, 8% of young voters, 6% of men, 6% of those who almost never go to church, 5% of Conservatives and 5% of Twin Cities voters tell SurveyUSA that they will vote for neither McCain nor Obama, but rather "some other candidate." How much of this protest can be attributed to the failure of the U.S. House of Representatives to pass an economic recovery bill, the day before interviewing for this survey began, is unclear. Ron Paul held his campaign "convention" in Minnesota a month ago. Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are on the ballot in Minnesota. Voters who tell SurveyUSA they are for "some other candidate" also tell SurveyUSA they are likely to change their minds. It is unclear how many actual votes will be siphoned from McCain and/or Obama on Election Day, however, polling results from the Norm Coleman / Al Franken U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, also released today by SurveyUSA , suggest the protest may be non-trivial.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Minnesota polls.

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