. Men: Obama 42%, McCain 42%. Women: Obama 44%, McCain 35%. Single Women: Obama 48%, McCain 29%. Married Women: Obama 41%, McCain 40%. Obama has increased his advantages in the northeast over Kerry's in 2004 by a healthy 12 points. No one has any doubt that the northeast, except perhaps for New Hampshire, will be solidly blue. The South is showing huge Democratic gains, from a minus-16 loss in 2004, to a measly minus-5 in this poll. This bodes well in Florida and even Georgia and Mississippi, which are mathematically in reach if the African American vote turns out in historic numbers. The West is also swinging heavier toward Obama than it did Kerry, probably reflecting the solid leads Obama enjoys in Washington and Oregon, not to mention the gains Democrats have made in Colorado and smaller states like North Dakota and Montana.
But the midwest .... here's where we're seeing the most dramatic gains. Bush won the region 51-48 in 2004, and that included heavily Democratic Illinois. It was that narrow victory in the region that allowed Bush to win Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio while keeping Wisconsin and Michigan in play (and Kerry tied up). Yet today, if R2K is correct, Obama would win the region by 16 points. Some of that is an even bigger margin of victory in Illinois (Kerry won it by nine points in 2004), but a lot of that is the wider margins in places like Minnesota and Wisconsin, plus Obama's strong showings in Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana.
. Men: Obama 42%, McCain 42%. Women: Obama 44%, McCain 35%. Single Women: Obama 48%, McCain 29%. Married Women: Obama 41%, McCain 40%. Obama has increased his advantages in the northeast over Kerry's in 2004 by a healthy 12 points. No one has any doubt that the northeast, except perhaps for New Hampshire, will be solidly blue. The South is showing huge Democratic gains, from a minus-16 loss in 2004, to a measly minus-5 in this poll. This bodes well in Florida and even Georgia and Mississippi, which are mathematically in reach if the African American vote turns out in historic numbers. The West is also swinging heavier toward Obama than it did Kerry, probably reflecting the solid leads Obama enjoys in Washington and Oregon, not to mention the gains Democrats have made in Colorado and smaller states like North Dakota and Montana.
But the midwest .... here's where we're seeing the most dramatic gains. Bush won the region 51-48 in 2004, and that included heavily Democratic Illinois. It was that narrow victory in the region that allowed Bush to win Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio while keeping Wisconsin and Michigan in play (and Kerry tied up). Yet today, if R2K is correct, Obama would win the region by 16 points. Some of that is an even bigger margin of victory in Illinois (Kerry won it by nine points in 2004), but a lot of that is the wider margins in places like Minnesota and Wisconsin, plus Obama's strong showings in Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana. Among independents, however, Obama has pulled ahead and opened up a 42% to 28% lead. Last month, McCain had a 38%-37% edge among these important voters. Independents who haven't made up their minds jumped to 26% from 19%. Obama's lead among self-described "moderates" is even larger � 46%-22% � with 29% unsure.
Compared with the 78% support that McCain has with Republicans in general, conservatives back him by 67%, with 17% still undecided. Obama polls 13% among conservatives.
In sharp contrast, liberals favor Obama by 85%-7% , with just 4% of them undecided. Although McCain has acted in recent weeks to align himself more with conservatives, his conservative bona fides continue to be challenged by some right-wing pundits and radio talk-show hosts.
Some note, for example, that while the senator now supports drilling for oil on the Outer Continental Shelf, he remains opposed to energy development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.
It should be noted, however, that George W. Bush at this point in the 2004 presidential campaign was pulling only 65% of conservatives.
Among another key Republican voting group � at-least-once-a-week churchgoers � McCain is polling 50% vs. Obama's 26%. Obama is favored by those who say they attend church a few times a month (36%-29%) and a few times a year (51%-33%). Those who never go to church support the Democrat by 60% to 25%.
By region, Obama and McCain are in statistical dead heats in the Northeast, Midwest and South (with Obama holding slight leads in the first two and McCain narrowly up in the South). In the West, however, Obama enjoys a commanding 50% to 29% advantage.
In "blue" (Democratic-trending) states, Obama is ahead 51% to 30%; in "red" (GOPtrending) states, McCain leads 41% to 32%. In the all-important "swing" states, they are statistically tied.
Obama does better with urban voters (50%-31%) than McCain does with suburban (41%- 36%) and rural (44%-28%) voters.
