Democrat Polls
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/27
Mississippi
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: John McCain continues to lead Barack Obama by eight percentage points in Mississippi. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Republican ahead 53% to 45%. McCain held the same lead at the end of September. He held double-digit leads back in August and July, after two months of holding six-point advantages. Mississippi has cast its six Electoral College votes for the Republican candidate in the last seven presidential elections. In 2004, President Bush easily won the state by a 59% to 40% margin. McCain�s lead among unaffiliated voters in Mississippi has grown even larger this month: It's now 70% to 17%, compared to 55% to 34% in September. While men in the state steadily support the Republican, women continue to move more towards the Democrat. McCain holds a dominant lead among white voters, while Obama earns the support of nearly all black voters in the state.
Press Register
Date: 10/13-23
Mississippi
Added: 10/27/08
Quote: In the presidential contest, the numbers showed McCain leading Obama 46 to 33 percent. In the Senate battle, Wicker has 45 percent of the vote, compared with 32 percent for Musgrove. But one outside observer questioned the findings because about one-third of black voters said they are undecided, backing a lesser-known candidate or refused to answer. In reality, the vast majority of black Mississippi voters will cast ballots for Obama and Musgrove in the Nov. 4 general election, said David Bositis, senior political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank that focuses on black issues. Other surveys have registered a much tighter Senate race. Musgrove campaign spokesman Adam Bozzi said the Press-Register findings do not reflect the results of both internal campaign and public polls showing the contest to be within a percentage point or two in either direction. At the Wicker campaign, spokesman Ryan Annison said, "There will be lots of polls between now and Nov. 4. ... We are confident Senator Wicker will win." In both races, more than one out of five Mississippi respondents overall said they were undecided, were supporting other candidates or would not answer. USA Polling Group Director Keith Nicholls attributed that relatively high percentage in part to ambivalence about the candidates.
Research 2000 for DailyKos.com
Date: 10/14-15
Mississippi
Added: 10/18/08
Quote: Senate Wicker (R) 47 (48)
Musgrove (D) 46 (43) 12 percent of African Americans remain undecided (for the presidential question as well, suggesting that these individuals didn't feel comfortable talking to a pollster -- evidence of the "reverse Bradley" effect that undercounted Obama's support in the polls in Southern states during the primary). Those black "undecided" voters should be worth another two points for Musgrove. So the rest of the margin will need to come from either white voters, or increased turnout among African Americans. This poll assumes that African Americans will make up 37 percent of the vote. In 2004, exit polls pegged the black vote at 34 percent, so Research 2000 is already assuming heightened African American turnout. And interest in the election in Mississippi is certainly at record levels. In the presidential, McCain leads Obama 50-40. DavidNYC wrote a piece back in May looking at what it would take to win Mississippi. Bottom line? 40 percent of African American turnout and 20 percent of the white vote to Obama. We won't know what black turnout will look like until election day, but as for white support, Obama is just at 15 percent. Amazingly, that's more than Kerry got in 2004 -- 14 percent. So it's not necessarily a reaction to Obama being black. It's a reaction to him being a Democrat. Musgrove is in better shape because he's garnering 24 percent of the white vote. It'll be a tough state for Democrats as long as they're unable to make inroads with white voters in the poorest state in the union.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Mississippi polls.
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