Obama�s biggest issue is with white voters, who support McCain by a 56-35 margin. �There aren�t enough black voters in Missouri for Barack Obama to win it if he can�t make things more competitive among white voters,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �That�s going to be his challenge if he wants to have any chance at winning the state.�
McCain leads across every age group, and has the advantage with both men and women. Obama will need a good margin of victory with women if he is to take Missouri but for now that�s not coming through.
The news is better for Democrats in the Governor�s race. Jay Nixon leads Republican Kenny Hulshof 48-42. In other statewide races Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan hold double digit leads, while in the open seats for Attorney General and Treasurer Democrat Chris Koster and Republican Brad Lager each hold a narrow advantage. Men: Obama 33, McCain 48. Women: Obama 51, McCain 33. McCain is supported by 93% of Missouri Republicans and enjoys a twenty-three percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 84% of Democrats. Premium Members can review crosstabs and see results by gender, age, ideology, party, income, and other demographics.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 59% of Missouri voters, Obama by 53%.
Nineteen percent (19%) have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 16% hold a Very Unfavorable view of the presumptive Republican nominee. For Obama, the numbers are 27% Very Favorable, 29% Very Unfavorable.
Fifty-five percent (55%) say the U.S. and its allies are now winning the War on Terror. Nationally, confidence in the War on Terror is at the highest levels of the past four years. Missouri, 3 Months Out: McCain Maintains Slight Advantage in Key Swing State: In an election for President in Missouri today, 08/01/08, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KCTV-TV Kansas City and KSDK-TV St. Louis. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released ten weeks ago, when Hillary Clinton was still in the race for the Democratic nomination, McCain is up a statistically insignificant one point; Obama is down a statistically insignificant one point. Among men, McCain today leads by 12. Among women, Obama leads by 3 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 19 points. Among voters younger than Obama, the contest is tied. McCain holds 87% of Republican voters; Obama holds 83% of Democrats. Independents break 5:3 for McCain. McCain leads by 28 points in southeastern Missouri, by 23 in southwestern Missouri, and by 21 in the northern portion of the state. Obama leads by 13 in the St. Louis area. The two tie in the Kansas City area. Ali said Republicans should be far more concerned about Obama's lead of 16 percentage points when respondents were asked which man could better handle the economy. Those polled also preferred Obama by similar or larger margins on other domestic matters, including global warming, gas prices and health care.
What McCain has to do, said Ali, is shore up his standing on the domestic front among Missouri voters while convincing them that Obama is "dangerous for the country'' when it comes to terrorism and war.
The poll signaled the potential power of that argument: Those polled gave McCain a 19 percentage-point edge when it came to handling terrorism.
Obama has to continue telling voters, "I'm a safe choice,'' Ali said. "He can't allow himself to be defined by McCain."
The stakes for both men are high in Missouri, a swing state that often signals how the national electorate is leaning.
"Missouri is a state that McCain is supposed to win in November,'' Ali said. "If McCain can't close the gap on the economy here, he's done nationally. Obama wins Missouri and the presidential election."
Even in regions of the state that lean Republican, such as the Springfield area, McCain failed to get more than 50 percent support among respondents. But voter preferences, and concerns, can change dramatically between July and November. John McCain is up 47-44 on Barack Obama, according to Public Policy Polling�s first Missouri poll.
Although both candidates are doing a pretty good job of holding onto the support of voters within their own parties, McCain is doing slightly better as he leads among Republicans 85-10 while Obama has the 77-15 edge with Democrats. McCain also leads 46-38 with independents in the state.
�Missouri is likely to be one of the most competitive states in the country this fall,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �We�re finding that more voters in the state are identifying themselves as Democrats than Republicans this year, but the key for Barack Obama will be making sure those folks actually stay with the party in their voting for President.� Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House. George W. Bush won those 11 Electoral Votes four years ago by winning the popular vote 53% to 46%.
Forty-six percent (46%) of Missouri voters say that economic issues are the top concern for Election 2008. Twenty-four percent (24%) say national security issues are the highest priority. These figures are similar to the national average.
Fifty-three percent (53%) of Missouri voters say it�s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Forty percent (40%) disagree and say victory is more important. Voters see the candidate�s positions on Iraq as the biggest difference between McCain and Obama.
Sixty-seven percent (67%) say offshore drilling for oil should be allowed, only 24% disagree. Most Missouri voters (55%) say that move is likely to lower the price of gas and oil.
This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc. . . . . . . . . . . .
