Democrat Polls
Mason Dixon for LVRJ
Date: 10/28-29
Nevada
Added: 11/2/08
Quote: White Voters: McCain 49, Obama 41. Black Voters: Obama 93%, McCain 2%. Men: McCain 45, Obama 44. Women: Obama 50, McCain 41.
Reno Gazette Journal
Date: 10/25-28
Nevada
Added: 10/31/08
Quote: "I think I can say at this point that Nevada is Barack Obama's state to lose," pollster Del Ali said Wednesday of the battleground state that President Bush won twice. "I think this is a state that is going to flip." Of 600 likely voters surveyed statewide, 50 percent said they would vote for Obama if the election were today, compared with 45 percent who said they would vote for McCain. Three percent said they would vote for another candidate and 2 percent remained undecided. The Reno Gazette-Journal/Channel 2 news poll was conducted Saturday to Tuesday by Maryland-based Research 2000. The margin of error is 4 percent. The lead, which Obama has maintained in two separate RGJ polls this month, has given his supporters a sense of "cautious optimism," said Assemblywoman Sheila Leslie, D-Reno, an Obama supporter. "I'd say we are optimistic, but we don't feel we have a it won," Leslie said. "In fact, what I hear from most people is more worry over what if, what if, what if." Noting that Obama's lead is within the statistical margin of error, meaning either candidate could win Tuesday, political observers said the race has come down to which campaign will be able to get more of its supporters to the polls. "Now it's a game of turnout," Democratic strategist Dan Hart said. Coupled with Obama's lead in the polls, the fact that Democrats have been turning out in far greater numbers than Republicans during early voting has some Republicans questioning what McCain could do to turn it around. "Obviously, time is running out," Republican strategist Greg Ferraro said. "A mistake can be made that's crippling, but you haven't seen the Obama campaign make many mistakes. I think even McCain's advisers are recognizing they are falling further behind."
CNN TIME
Date: 10/23-28
Nevada
Added: 10/30/08
Associated Press GFK
Date: 10/22-26
Nevada
Added: 10/29/08
Suffolk University
Date: 10/23-27
Nevada
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: With just one week to go before the Nov. 4 election, Obama (50 percent) leads McCain (40 percent). The double-digit spread is a marked switch from just over a month ago, when a Suffolk University poll found a virtual dead heat between the two candidates in the Silver State. It�s the first Nevada poll this year to find a double-digit lead for Obama. �Barack Obama seemingly has struck a chord with the independent spirit of the West.� said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. �Some of the battleground states that were once solidly Republican are showing blue streaks as we get close to Election Day.� A separate Suffolk University bellwether poll of Nevada�s Washoe County finds Obama leading McCain 45 percent to 41 percent. In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when in agreement with the statewide Suffolk polls of the respective states, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners. An overwhelming majority of likely Nevada voters responding to the poll (94 percent) have now made up their minds. Just 1 percent described themselves as undecided, and 5 percent said they may change how they will vote between now and election day. The trust factor also has swung significantly in Obama�s direction. Asked which candidate they trust more, 50 percent of respondents said Obama, while 41 percent said McCain. A Suffolk poll released Sept. 22 found likely voters in Nevada trusted Obama over McCain by a much slimmer 46 percent-to-45 percent margin. Source
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/27
Nevada
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: Obama leads John McCain 50% to 46% in the findings from Monday night. Ten days ago the Democrat had a five-point lead, 50% to 45%. He took the lead in Nevada � by four points - at the beginning of this month, the first time he�d been out front since July. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Nevada voters say Obama is the candidate most likely to carry Nevada next Tuesday, while 35% say McCain will win. Obama made two appearances in Nevada on Saturday, his 19th visit to the state where he also battled Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. McCain has not been in the state since August, although his running mate, Sarah Palin, staged a rally there last week. Obama is viewed favorably by 51% of Nevada voters and unfavorably by 48%. Fifty-three percent (53%) regard McCain favorably while 45% see him unfavorably. Forty-nine percent (49%) say the economy is the primary issue in the campaign. Voters in Nevada are closely divided over which candidate they trust more to deal with that issue. Forty-seven percent (47%), however, agree with Obama that when the government spreads wealth around, it�s good for everybody, but 43% disagree. Nineteen percent (19%) say national security is the most important issue in the campaign. Voters trust McCain more than Obama by 10 points in this area.
Reuters Zogby
Date: 10/23-26
Nevada
Added: 10/27/08
Quote: Obama is within two points of McCain among several groups that are McCain strengths in many states, such as whites, men and those over 65. Obama leads by 10 among women, 14 with Independents and eight with Catholics. McCain is ahead by 10-11 points with whites and those over 65, but Obama is up 12 with Independents.
CNN Time
Date: 10/19-21
Nevada
Added: 10/23/08
Insider Advantage for Politico.com
Date: 10/19
Nevada
Added: 10/22/08
Quote: �In those suburban, metropolitan areas, Obama seems to be accelerating his lead,� he said, �which leads me to believe that in those less suburban, metropolitan areas McCain is making up his ground.� Voters in Reno, Nevada�s Washoe County prefer Obama over Sen. John McCain by a double-digit margin, 50 percent to 40 percent. A previous Politico/Insider Advantage survey, taken October 9, showed the race deadlocked in Washoe with Obama ahead of McCain, 46 percent to 45 percent.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/16
Nevada
Added: 10/18/08
Quote: Just 19% agree with the economic rescue plan passed by Congress while 59% take the opposite view. Only 26% believe it will help the economy, 27% say it will hurt, and 29% say the $700 billion plan will have no impact. Twelve percent (12%) say this year�s election is more positive than most, 37% say it�s more negative, and 50% say it�s about the same as most recent elections. Forty-two percent (42%) say it�s possible to win without criticizing your opponent, but 44% disagree. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say that the tone of Obama�s campaign has been generally positive while 31% say negative. For the McCain campaign, the numbers are 14% positive and 51% negative.
Insider Advantage
Date: 10/13
Nevada
Added: 10/15/08
Mason Dixon for Las Vegas Review Journal
Date: 10/8-9
Nevada
Added: 10/12/08
Quote: "It's still really, really close," Mason-Dixon managing partner Brad Coker said of the race for Nevada's five electoral votes. "Obama has a little bit of a lead, but it's not as wide as his lead in most of the national polls. Nevada's still very much a battleground, very close and very interesting." With undecided voters choosing sides as the election nears, the plummeting economy is overwhelmingly at the front of their minds, the poll found. And although the two candidates are in what amounts to a statistical tie, Obama has gained major ground since the Review-Journal's last poll of the race, taken in August. In the August poll, McCain led Obama by a 46 percent to 39 percent margin, with 15 percent undecided. "Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama," noted Mark Peplowski, a political scientist at the College of Southern Nevada. Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama. "All other things being equal, undecideds tend to swing toward the candidate they view as an instrument of change," he said. "If you were to take another survey this weekend, you would probably find an even bigger bump for Obama." With McCain's level of support in the state remaining basically steady, however, "Nevada continues to be an independent, can't-be-labeled state in this race," Peplowski said. "Nevada is one of the seven states that McCain and Obama are going to fight to the death over from now until Nov. 4."
Research 2000 for Reno Gazette Journal
Date: 10/3-6
Nevada
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: Since the start of the general election match up, polls have showed the two contenders locked in a neck-and-neck race. Only McCain has polled with a lead outside the margin of error. Today's poll is the first public survey in which Obama has posted a lead outside of the margin of error. According to the numbers, he's held on to his lead with women voters in Nevada and, for the first time since the RGJ started polling, has taken the lead from McCain among independent voters. The poll was in the field on the heels of the financial industry bailout debate and is the first conducted by the RGJ since U.S. Sen. Joe Biden and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin were added to the tickets.
Insider Advantage Poll Position
Date: 10/6
Nevada
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: Analysis: �We have seen very little real movement in Nevada from our last poll. Sen. Obama continues to perform well with men and independent voters who are the key �swing groups� this time around in Nevada.� Matt Towery
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/1
Nevada
Added: 10/4/08
Quote: The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 in New Hampshire and 50% of the state�s voters trust Obama more than McCain on that topic. Forty-one percent (41%) have the opposite view and trust McCain. Nine percent (9%) of Granite State voters rate the nation�s economy as good or excellent while 59% describe it as poor. Just 3% say the economy is getting better while 84% say it is getting worse.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Nevada polls.
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