2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

McClatchy/MSNBC / Mason Dixon
Date: 1/30-2/1
New Jersey
Added: 2/3/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

Clinton leads among whites by 12 points and among Hispanics by a margin of 67-18 percent. He leads among blacks by 73-17 percent. "She's still a pretty solid favorite in New Jersey," Coker said. "The minority vote in New Jersey keeps him in the picture."

Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll
Date: 1/30-2/1
New Jersey
Added: 2/3/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

Former North Carolina senator John Edward�s departure from the race does not seem to have benefited one candidate over the other.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
Date: 1/30-31
New Jersey
Added: 2/2/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

Obama has more room to grow with Edwards supporters and undecided voters. Edwards supporters are more open to Obama than Clinton in New Jersey. Among voters initially supporting Edwards, 26 percent shift their support to Obama, while only 12 percent shift to Clinton (34 percent of Edwards� supporters say they will continue to support Edwards although he is no longer in the race and 28 percent remain undecided). And among the 25 percent of voters who have no preference or indicate that they would vote for a candidate who is no longer campaigning, just 14 percent say there is �no chance� they would vote for Obama in the primary election. Among this same group, more than one-fifth (21 percent) say that there is �no chance� they would support Clinton.

Survey USA
Date: 1/30-31
New Jersey
Added: 2/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

There is a 40-point Gender Gap: Men back Obama 5:4. Women back Clinton 2:1. The contest is tied among voters under age 50. Clinton leads by 23 points among voters age 50+. Among voters who say the Economy is the most important issue, Clinton leads by 30 points. Among voters who say Iraq is most important, Obama leads by 5. Clinton's strength among registered Democrats overcomes Obama's support among Unaffiliated voters.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/30
New Jersey
Added: 2/2/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]

Quote:

Two weeks ago, Clinton led Obama by eighteen percentage points.

Clinton leads by 24-percentage points among women while Obama leads by five-points among men.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama�s supporters are �certain� they will vote for him and not change their mind. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Clinton�s voters are that certain of their support.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Garden State voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. The former First Lady earns positive reviews from 84% of women in the state along with 63% of men.

Obama is viewed favorably by 77%, including 82% of men and 74% of women.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated by the Democrats. An identical percentage say that Obama would have a chance to win.

Forty-five percent (45%) of New Jersey voters see the economy as the top voting issue. Twenty-six percent (26%) name the War in Iraq and 11% see Health Care as the top priority.

Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 1/15-22
New Jersey
Added: 1/23/08
Est. MoE = 4.5% [?]

Quote:

"Although Sen. Obama has picked up some strength in New Jersey, Sen. Clinton appears to be maintaining the sizable lead she needs for a Super Tuesday string of victories in her Northeast strongholds," Richards added.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/15
New Jersey
Added: 1/20/08
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]

Quote:

Sixty-six percent (66%) of Clinton voters are �certain� they will vote for her and not change their mind. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Obama voters are that �certain.�

Eighty-six percent (86%) say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the general election if nominated. That includes 45% who say she would be Very Likely to win.

Seventy-four percent (74%) say that Obama would have a chance to win the White House if nominated including 33% who say he would be Very Likely to win.

Just 56% believe Edwards would have a chance at defeating the Republican in November. A commentary by Dick Morris says it is time for Edwards to get out of the race because he holds the fate of Clinton and Obama in his hands.

Among African-American voters, Obama leads Clinton 59% to 23%. This mirrors a trend seen nationally and in other states such as South Carolina. An Inside Report by Robert Novak suggests that Clinton comments about vetting Obama may disturb the party�s racial chemistry.

Monmouth University Gannett Poll by Braun Research
Date: 1/9-13
New Jersey
Added: 1/16/08
Est. MoE = 4.4% [?]

Quote:

Among likely voters in the upcoming Democratic primary, 45% say they want a candidate of change and 31% want experience. Democratic voters who want change go for Obama over Clinton by 53% to 24%. Those who want experience choose Clinton over Obama by 66% to 8%.

Research 2000 for The Bergen Record
Date: 1/9-10
New Jersey
Added: 1/15/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

Regarding Barack Obama "My take is Democrats want to vote for him but they want to be absolutely sure he can win," said pollster Del Ali of Rockville, Md.-based Research 2000, who conducted The Record Poll. "Those who say they're likely to change could say the heck with him. He's got to keep everything he's got and build from there.'

Republican Polls

McClatchy/MSNBC / Mason Dixon
Date: 1/30-2/1
New Jersey
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

McCain leads in every demographic group, even among the one in five who call themselves evangelicals. The one hope for Romney here is that half of Huckabee's supporters say they still could change their minds.

Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll
Date: 1/30-2/1
New Jersey
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]

Quote:

�As expected, Giuliani supporters in New Jersey flocked to McCain, reflecting similar moderate views which are in line with most Republican voters here,� remarked Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. �In the other race, it is appearing difficult for Obama to break Clinton�s hold on the traditional Democratic electorate in the state, despite an active television campaign and an appearance in the state.�

Survey USA
Date: 1/30-31
New Jersey
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]

Quote:

New Jersey Republican Primary: Moderates Propel McCain Past Romney -- 4 days to the NJ Republican Primary, it's John McCain 48%, Mitt Romney 25% and other in single digits, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WABC-TV New York and WCAU-TV Philadelphia. The contest is tied among Conservatives, but McCain leads by 39 points among Moderates. 1 in 3 voters say they may change their mind.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/30
New Jersey
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Quote:

McCain attracted votes from 62% of voters who consider themselves moderate. Conservatives were evenly divided, with 36% going to McCain and 38% choosing Romney.

McCain is seen as the most electable candidate, with 78% of voters polling that the former Arizona senator is at least somewhat likely to win the Republican nomination. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters believe Romney has at least somewhat of a chance to win the nomination.

Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 1/15-22
New Jersey
Est. MoE = 4.5% [?]

Quote:

"With the momentum all in Sen. McCain's direction, New Jersey Republicans appear to be switching from the hero of 9/11 to the hero of Vietnam," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Mayor Giuliani is fighting for his political life in New Jersey and Sen. McCain could deny him victory in one of the Mayor's must win states.

"Mayor Giuliani is on the receiving end of a one-two punch this week, as this New Jersey poll comes one day after a Quinnipiac University New York State poll found Giuliani and McCain tied at 30 percent each among likely Republican voters," Richards added.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/15
New Jersey
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

It is impossible to overstate the fluidity of the race in New Jersey. While McCain is barely atop the poll, just 47% of his supporters are �certain� they will end up voting for him. Just 50% of Giuliani�s supporters are that �certain.� For Romney, that number is 43% and just 33% of Huckabee fans are sure they won�t change their mind.

Looked at from the opposite end of the spectrum, 33% of Huckabee supporters say there�s a good chance they will change their mind, a view shared by 24% of Romney voters. Of those who currently support McCain, 14% say there�s a good chance they could change their mind and 11% of Giuliani voters say the same.

Giuliani leads McCain 27% to 23% among Garden State conservatives. McCain leads 39% to 28% among moderates.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 82% of Likely Primary Voters, McCain by 74%. None of the other candidates reach 60%.

Monmouth University Gannett Poll by Braun Research
Date: 1/9-13
New Jersey
Est. MoE = 4.4% [?]

Quote:

Among likely Republican primary voters, 51% say they want a candidate with experience and 27% want change. Republican voters who prefer experience give McCain (33%) a slight edge over Giuliani (28%). Those who want change slightly prefer Giuliani (22%) to McCain (19%) or Huckabee (16%)

Research 2000 for The Bergen Record
Date: 1/9-10
New Jersey
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]

Quote:

McCain supporter Bill Baroni, a state senator from Mercer County, said that unlike campaigns for a state office where people often make a firm choice for senator or governor, presidential primaries are volatile and voters in one state influence those in another.

"In state after state, Senator McCain's momentum is palpable and we're seeing that in New Jersey as well. There's been a dramatic increase in e-mails and phone calls from people who want to become involved. We're very fortunate," Baroni said.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 New Jersey polls.

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