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2008 State Polls
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Democrat Polls
Quinnipiac University
Date: 8/4-10
New Jersey
Added: 8/13/08
Quote: "The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. More than a quarter of all voters and more than a third of independent voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that the presidential debates will change their minds about who they will vote for. New Jersey likely voters give Obama a 56 - 34 percent favorability rating, compared to 56 - 35 percent for McCain. Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate, gets a 42 - 32 percent favorability, with 25 percent saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden gets a 48 - 25 percent favorability, with 26 percent who say they don't know enough about him. New Jersey voters say 58 - 33 percent that McCain's selection of Palin was a good choice. Obama's selection of Biden was a good choice, voters say 59 - 30 percent. "New Jersey's blue [Democratic] - I don't think there's any question about it in the presidential race," said Del Ali of Research 2000, whose firm surveyed 600 likely New Jersey voters by telephone last Tuesday through Thursday. The poll has a margin for error of 4 percentage points. "One could say, 'Why isn't Obama over 50 [percent]?' But we're not dealing with an incumbent here," Ali said. "In fact, you could argue the incumbent party's the Republicans, and that's not good for McCain." New Jersey hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Democrats control the State House and both houses of the state Legislature and they have a one-seat edge in the state's congressional delegation. They also have advantages in the numbers of registered voters - 1.6 million to the GOP's 1 million. Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama Leads Republican Opponent John McCain by 7 Percentage Points in New Jersey: With 15 electoral votes up for grabs in New Jersey, 47% of registered voters in the state say they support Senator Barack Obama for president while 40% say they back Senator John McCain. That�s the same margin in New Jersey with which former Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry beat President George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election. However, Obama�s lead shrinks when looking at likely voters, including those who are leaning toward a specific candidate. 48% of likely voters support Obama while 45% are behind McCain. So, how does support break down along party lines among likely voters? 83% of likely Democratic voters say they support their party�s candidate, Barack Obama, while 87% of likely Republican voters back John McCain. And, among New Jersey�s all-important likely Independent voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, 51% support Barack Obama compared with 41% for McCain. �McCain and Palin dominated the news last week, so I would expect his numbers to peak,� said Peter Woolley, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson and director of the poll. �He shored up his support in New Jersey, and he needed to do that. But he did not cut into his opponent�s support.� Neither candidate cuts into the other�s party base; each wins 85% of their partisans. The Republican nominee�s strongest demographics are older, white voters as well as men. McCain loses in every age category under 60 but edges Obama among those 60 and older and is preferred by a five to four margin among white voters. Men prefer McCain by almost a five to four margin (49%-42%) but women prefer Obama by about a five to three margin (51%-33%). Four of five Republican voters (78%) say Gov. Sarah Palin was a good choice as the nominee for vice president. Only one in five Democrats (22%) agree, and just half of independents (49%) agree. Sen. Joe Biden fares better as four of five Democrats (78%) say he is a good choice as nominee for vice president while a majority of independents (61%) and about half of Republicans (48%) agree. Moreover, a majority of women (63%) say that Biden is a good choice but they split on Palin, with 40% saying she�s a good choice but 36% saying she is not. Independent voters go 45 percent for Sen. Obama and 42 percent for Sen. McCain. Men also give the Democrat a slight edge, 48 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 53 - 38 percent. McCain leads 50 - 42 percent among white voters. Obama leads 66 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, as McCain has a 47 - 44 percent edge with voters over 55 years old the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. New Jersey voters give Obama a 57 - 31 percent favorability rating to McCain's 54 - 35 percent. Twenty-two percent of Obama voters and 22 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day. "New Jersey continues to wear its true blue stripes and appears to be solidly in Sen. Barack Obama's corner heading into the Fall campaign. Like most strong Republican contenders, Sen. John McCain can wish, but it is unlikely that he can swing the tide in New Jersey unless he swings the tide dramatically nationwide," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 8/4
New Jersey
Added: 8/7/08
Quote: "The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. More than a quarter of all voters and more than a third of independent voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that the presidential debates will change their minds about who they will vote for. New Jersey likely voters give Obama a 56 - 34 percent favorability rating, compared to 56 - 35 percent for McCain. Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate, gets a 42 - 32 percent favorability, with 25 percent saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden gets a 48 - 25 percent favorability, with 26 percent who say they don't know enough about him. New Jersey voters say 58 - 33 percent that McCain's selection of Palin was a good choice. Obama's selection of Biden was a good choice, voters say 59 - 30 percent. "New Jersey's blue [Democratic] - I don't think there's any question about it in the presidential race," said Del Ali of Research 2000, whose firm surveyed 600 likely New Jersey voters by telephone last Tuesday through Thursday. The poll has a margin for error of 4 percentage points. "One could say, 'Why isn't Obama over 50 [percent]?' But we're not dealing with an incumbent here," Ali said. "In fact, you could argue the incumbent party's the Republicans, and that's not good for McCain." New Jersey hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Democrats control the State House and both houses of the state Legislature and they have a one-seat edge in the state's congressional delegation. They also have advantages in the numbers of registered voters - 1.6 million to the GOP's 1 million. Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama Leads Republican Opponent John McCain by 7 Percentage Points in New Jersey: With 15 electoral votes up for grabs in New Jersey, 47% of registered voters in the state say they support Senator Barack Obama for president while 40% say they back Senator John McCain. That�s the same margin in New Jersey with which former Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry beat President George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election. However, Obama�s lead shrinks when looking at likely voters, including those who are leaning toward a specific candidate. 48% of likely voters support Obama while 45% are behind McCain. So, how does support break down along party lines among likely voters? 83% of likely Democratic voters say they support their party�s candidate, Barack Obama, while 87% of likely Republican voters back John McCain. And, among New Jersey�s all-important likely Independent voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, 51% support Barack Obama compared with 41% for McCain. �McCain and Palin dominated the news last week, so I would expect his numbers to peak,� said Peter Woolley, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson and director of the poll. �He shored up his support in New Jersey, and he needed to do that. But he did not cut into his opponent�s support.� Neither candidate cuts into the other�s party base; each wins 85% of their partisans. The Republican nominee�s strongest demographics are older, white voters as well as men. McCain loses in every age category under 60 but edges Obama among those 60 and older and is preferred by a five to four margin among white voters. Men prefer McCain by almost a five to four margin (49%-42%) but women prefer Obama by about a five to three margin (51%-33%). Four of five Republican voters (78%) say Gov. Sarah Palin was a good choice as the nominee for vice president. Only one in five Democrats (22%) agree, and just half of independents (49%) agree. Sen. Joe Biden fares better as four of five Democrats (78%) say he is a good choice as nominee for vice president while a majority of independents (61%) and about half of Republicans (48%) agree. Moreover, a majority of women (63%) say that Biden is a good choice but they split on Palin, with 40% saying she�s a good choice but 36% saying she is not. Independent voters go 45 percent for Sen. Obama and 42 percent for Sen. McCain. Men also give the Democrat a slight edge, 48 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 53 - 38 percent. McCain leads 50 - 42 percent among white voters. Obama leads 66 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, as McCain has a 47 - 44 percent edge with voters over 55 years old the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. New Jersey voters give Obama a 57 - 31 percent favorability rating to McCain's 54 - 35 percent. Twenty-two percent of Obama voters and 22 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day. "New Jersey continues to wear its true blue stripes and appears to be solidly in Sen. Barack Obama's corner heading into the Fall campaign. Like most strong Republican contenders, Sen. John McCain can wish, but it is unlikely that he can swing the tide in New Jersey unless he swings the tide dramatically nationwide," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Men: Obama 41, McCain 43. Women: Obama 56, McCain 30. Both presidential candidates are viewed favorably by Garden State voters�59% have a favorable opinion of Obama while 57% say the same about McCain. Forty-eight percent (48%) of New Jersey voters say that the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008. This comes at a time when 22% are worried about losing their job, a figure close to the national average. Fifty percent (50%) say the high cost of gas and travel has caused them to postpone or cancel vacation plans. Forty-seven percent (47%) trust Obama more than McCain on economic issues while 40% have more trust in McCain. Nationally, voters are evenly divided on the same question. Twenty-one percent (21%) say national security is the highest priority.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 New Jersey polls.
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