2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Survey USA
Date: 9/27-28
New Jersey
Added: 10/1/00

Quote:

Obama Keeps New Jersey's 15 Electoral Votes In Democratic Column: In an election for President of the United States in New Jersey today, 09/29/08, five weeks from Election Day, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 52% to 42%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WABC-TV New York and WCAU-TV Philadelphia. Obama leads among most groups: men and women, young and old, well-educated and less-educated, rich and poor. Obama leads by double digits in North and South Jersey, and is effectively tied with McCain in Central Jersey. 15% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents favor McCain by 9 points. 83% of conservatives vote for McCain; 84% of liberals vote for Obama; moderates favor Obama by 13 points.

Strategic Vision
Date: 9/26-28
New Jersey
Added: 10/1/08

Quote:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 50% Unfavorable 35% Undecided 15%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 47% Unfavorable 35% Undecided 18%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 46% Unfavorable 42% Undecided 12%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 49% Unfavorable 35% Undecided 16%

Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 54% John McCain 34% Undecided 12%

Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain? John McCain 46% Barack Obama 44% Undecided 10%

American Research Group
Date: 9/19-21
New Jersey
Added: 9/22/08

Quote:

Independents (41%): McCain 44, Obama 47.

Monmouth University Gannett New Jersey Poll
Date: 9/11-14
New Jersey
Added: 9/16/08

Quote:

Obama�s support levels are similar to his summer standing among likely voters � 49% now to 50% in July � while McCain has swung some previously undecided voters into his camp � 41% in the current poll compared to 36% in July. Independent voters are split 38% for Obama and 37% for McCain. About 1-in-3 voters indicate they are still not firmly committed to either candidate at this stage of the campaign.

�McCain has made some gains in New Jersey, which should not really be a surprise to anyone who has followed election polling in this state,� said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. �Republican candidates often see some positive movement in September polling, but have had problems maintaining that momentum. Only once in the past ten years � the 2000 U.S. Senate race � has the Republican candidate continued to narrow the gap through election day. We�ll have to wait and see if this is really a trend.�

Obama�s personal ratings of 60% favorable and 23% unfavorable are similar to his July numbers, while McCain�s 49% favorable to 34% unfavorable ratings mark a 9 point increase in his unfavorable numbers.

Quinnipiac University
Date: 9/10-14
New Jersey
Added: 9/16/08

Quote:

"The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

More than a quarter of all voters and more than a third of independent voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that the presidential debates will change their minds about who they will vote for.

New Jersey likely voters give Obama a 56 - 34 percent favorability rating, compared to 56 - 35 percent for McCain.

Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate, gets a 42 - 32 percent favorability, with 25 percent saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden gets a 48 - 25 percent favorability, with 26 percent who say they don't know enough about him.

New Jersey voters say 58 - 33 percent that McCain's selection of Palin was a good choice. Obama's selection of Biden was a good choice, voters say 59 - 30 percent.

Research 2000 for Bergen Record
Date: 9/9-11
New Jersey
Added: 9/15/08

Quote:

"New Jersey's blue [Democratic] - I don't think there's any question about it in the presidential race," said Del Ali of Research 2000, whose firm surveyed 600 likely New Jersey voters by telephone last Tuesday through Thursday. The poll has a margin for error of 4 percentage points.

"One could say, 'Why isn't Obama over 50 [percent]?' But we're not dealing with an incumbent here," Ali said. "In fact, you could argue the incumbent party's the Republicans, and that's not good for McCain."

New Jersey hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Democrats control the State House and both houses of the state Legislature and they have a one-seat edge in the state's congressional delegation. They also have advantages in the numbers of registered voters - 1.6 million to the GOP's 1 million.

Marist College
Date: 9/5-8
New Jersey
Added: 9/13/08

Quote:

Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama Leads Republican Opponent John McCain by 7 Percentage Points in New Jersey: With 15 electoral votes up for grabs in New Jersey, 47% of registered voters in the state say they support Senator Barack Obama for president while 40% say they back Senator John McCain. That�s the same margin in New Jersey with which former Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry beat President George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election. However, Obama�s lead shrinks when looking at likely voters, including those who are leaning toward a specific candidate. 48% of likely voters support Obama while 45% are behind McCain. So, how does support break down along party lines among likely voters? 83% of likely Democratic voters say they support their party�s candidate, Barack Obama, while 87% of likely Republican voters back John McCain. And, among New Jersey�s all-important likely Independent voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, 51% support Barack Obama compared with 41% for McCain.

Fairleigh Dickinson
Date: 9/4-7
New Jersey
Added: 9/10/08

Quote:

�McCain and Palin dominated the news last week, so I would expect his numbers to peak,� said Peter Woolley, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson and director of the poll. �He shored up his support in New Jersey, and he needed to do that. But he did not cut into his opponent�s support.�

Neither candidate cuts into the other�s party base; each wins 85% of their partisans. The Republican nominee�s strongest demographics are older, white voters as well as men. McCain loses in every age category under 60 but edges Obama among those 60 and older and is preferred by a five to four margin among white voters. Men prefer McCain by almost a five to four margin (49%-42%) but women prefer Obama by about a five to three margin (51%-33%).

Four of five Republican voters (78%) say Gov. Sarah Palin was a good choice as the nominee for vice president. Only one in five Democrats (22%) agree, and just half of independents (49%) agree. Sen. Joe Biden fares better as four of five Democrats (78%) say he is a good choice as nominee for vice president while a majority of independents (61%) and about half of Republicans (48%) agree. Moreover, a majority of women (63%) say that Biden is a good choice but they split on Palin, with 40% saying she�s a good choice but 36% saying she is not.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 New Jersey polls.

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