2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Survey USA
Date: 10/29-31
New Mexico
Added: 11/1/08

Quote:

Maybe, At the Wire, A Slight Tightening in the New Mexico President and US Senate Contests: 72 hours till votes are counted in New Mexico, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain, to capture the state's 5 electoral votes, and Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce to capture the US Senate seat vacated by Republican Peter Domenici, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KOB-TV. In four SurveyUSA polls since mid-September, Obama has received 52%, McCain has received 44% or 45%. Of New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads big. Among those who have not yet voted, but who promise to, Obama leads small. The relative size of those two groups will determine Obama's winning margin. In the contest for United States Senate, Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce 56% to 42%, the closest Pearce has been to Udall in 4 tracking polls, and 4 points tighter than the race was mid-October. In Bernalillo County, Udall's once 24-point advance is now 13, as Pearce breaks 40% for the first time. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 New Mexico adults 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 721 were registered to vote; of them, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.

Public Policy Polling
Date: 10/28-30
New Mexico
Added: 10/31/08

Quote:

Obama is polling extremely well with two key groups of New Mexico voters: independents and Hispanics. Among independents he has a remarkable 66-28 lead, and with Hispanics it�s 62-37.

One key thing for Obama�s chances in the state is that he has built up a 64-36 lead with those who have already voted.

�New Mexico may be the state that sees the biggest turnaround in how it votes in 2008 compared to what it did in 2004,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �It�s hard to believe George W. Bush took this state just four years ago given the huge margin it appears Barack Obama will win it by.�

In the contest for the state�s vacant US Senate seat, Democrat Tom Udall continues to hold a dominant lead as he has in most public opinion polling over the last year. His margin is now 58-39 over Steve Pearce.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/13
New Mexico
Added: 10/15/08

Quote:

Forty-six percent (46%) say lower taxes spur economic growth while 31% believe leaving taxes unchanged would be better. At the same time, 52% say higher taxes on those who earn more than $250,000 a year would be good for the economy. That, too, is similar to the national average.

Overall, Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of New Mexico voters, McCain by 54%.

However, 46% of New Mexico voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 28% say the same about McCain. Twenty-seven percent (27%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama and 29% view McCain that negatively.

McCain and Obama are essentially even among white voters while the Democrat has a 17-point lead among Hispanic voters. Obama leads by 15 among women but trails by eight among men.

Survey USA
Date: 10/12-13
New Mexico
Added: 10/15/08

Quote:

Blue Mexico: In an election for President of the United States in New Mexico today, 10/14/08, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 52% to 45%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV in Albuquerque. Compared to identical SurveyUSA polls released two and four weeks ago, little has changed; Obama has consistently taken 52% of the vote; McCain has taken 44%, 44%, and now 45%.

While overall numbers remain steady, there is some offsetting movement along age lines, with some movement toward McCain among the youngest voters, and offsetting movement toward Obama among older voters.

Obama continues to need the support of Hispanic Americans and Native Americans to win the state. McCain leads by 13 points among New Mexico whites; Obama leads by 45 points among Hispanics and by 29 points among Natives. If Hispanic turnout is overstated in this model, so is Obama's lead. If Hispanic turnout is understated in this model, so is Obama's lead.

13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; independents are split.

Absentee voting began in New Mexico six days ago. Among the 10% of New Mexico voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 23 points. Among likely voters, Obama leads by 6.

Albuquerque Journal
Date: 9/29-10/2
New Mexico
Added: 10/6/08

Quote:

Obama's advantage over McCain in the state was even larger among Hispanic, independent and younger voters, the Albuquerque Journal reported Sunday in a copyright story.

"Barack Obama has been on a roll in the last 10 days to two weeks," said Brian Sanderoff, president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll. He pointed out that Obama also was leading in the polls nationally last week.

Research & Polling conducted a telephone survey of 659 registered voters who said they are likely to vote on Nov. 4. The survey, conducted Sept. 29 through Oct. 2, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Seventy-three percent of Democrats surveyed backed Obama, while 16 percent were undecided on their choice for the White House.

Sanderoff noted that Republicans win big races in the state by wooing independents and bringing Democrats across the fence.

The poll found that 44 percent of independents supported Obama compared with 29 percent for McCain. Twenty-two percent of independents said they were undecided.

"For John McCain to win, he needs to get his half of the independent vote," Sanderoff said. "The jury is still out on whether his maverick message will prevail. The good news for McCain is 16 percent of Democrats are undecided: They evidently have some reservations about Obama."

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/1
New Mexico
Added: 10/3/08

Quote:

McCain and Obama are essentially even among White Voters while the Democrat has a seventeen-point lead among Hispanic voters. Obama leads by fifteen among women but trails by eight among men.

Just 9% of New Mexico voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 57% say the economy today is poor. Only 5% believe it is getting better while 80% say it is getting worse.

The economy is the top voting issue in New Mexico as it is across the nation. Forty-eight percent (48%) trust Obama more that McCain on this issue while 43% have the opposite view. When it comes to national security issues, McCain is trusted more.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 New Mexico polls.

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