Democrat Polls
Research 2000 for DailyKos.com
Date: 10/28-30
North Carolina
Added: 11/2/08
Mason Dixon
Date: 10/28-29
North Carolina
Added: 11/2/08
Insider Advantage for Politico
Date: 10/29
North Carolina
Added: 10/31/08
Quote: Among North Carolinians in general, McCain drew strength from male voters, who picked McCain, 53 percent to 39 percent; whites, who preferred the Republican by a wide 62 percent to 34 percent margin and voters aged 45 and above. Obama matched McCain thanks to a 54 percent to 44 percent lead among women; a huge 87 percent to 12 percent lead among African Americans and a strong performance with voters under the age of 30.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/29
North Carolina
Added: 10/31/08
Quote: This is only the third time Obama has made it to or exceeded 50% all year, and he�s done it twice this month. McCain also has been in this territory only three times in this year�s polling, last week for the first time since mid-September. McCain is supported by 93% of Republicans while Obama gets the vote from 87% of Democrats.McCain has a nine-point lead among unaffiliated voters. The Republican leads by 11 points among men, while Obama has a 12-point advantage among women. Ninety-eight percent (98%) of African-American voters back Obama. Whites support McCain over the Democrat 63% to 35%.
Civitas Institute
Date: 10/27-29
North Carolina
Added: 10/31/08
National Journal FD
Date: 10/23-27
North Carolina
Added: 10/30/08
CNN TIME
Date: 10/23-28
North Carolina
Added: 10/30/08
Associated Press GFK
Date: 10/22-26
North Carolina
Added: 10/29/08
Mason Dixon for NBC
Date: 10/23-25
North Carolina
Added: 10/28/08
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/26
North Carolina
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: For years, North Carolina had been considered a safely Republican state, as no Democrat has won the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Holding North Carolina is critical for McCain to have a chance at winning the election next week. Just two percent (2%) say they are still undecided. Obama leads among North Carolina voters who have already cast their ballots, while McCain leads among those who have not. Of those who made their choice but have not yet voted, nine percent (9%) say there is still a chance they could change their minds before Election Day. A big shift this week comes from unaffiliated voters, who heavily favored McCain in the last poll. Those voters now favor Obama by a 20-point margin. McCain manages to pick up support from 15% of Democrats, up from 11% last week, while just six percent (6%) of Republicans say they will vote for Obama. Men continue to favor McCain by double digits, while women choose Obama 55% to 42%. McCain has a big lead over Obama among white voters in North Carolina, 61% to 35%. Obama has a dominant 91% to 7% lead among non-white voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 40%. For Obama, those ratings are 52% favorable, 47% unfavorable.
Reuters Zogby
Date: 10/23-26
North Carolina
Added: 10/27/08
Winthrop ETV
Date: 9/28-10/19
North Carolina
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: In North Carolina, the likely voters surveyed favored Obama by the narrowest of margins � 44.6 percent to 44.2 percent. In Virginia, Obama led 44.6 percent to 43.6 percent. North Carolina, or, more likely, Virginia could decide the election. �Those two states should not be tossups,� said Huffmon, the pollster. �They are two safe, red states.� If Obama can win the states that Democratic U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts carried four years ago against Bush, and take Virginia and Florida � also a dead heat � the Election Night suspense could end quickly � in the Eastern time zone, Huffmon said.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/23
North Carolina
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: In a survey released on Monday, Obama was ahead by three, 51% to 48%. Last week, the race was tied. But this is the first time the Republican has been ahead since the middle of September. Prior to that he had been leading Obama for months. Just one percent (1%) now say they are undecided, with another one percent (1%) backing an unspecified third-party candidate. No Democrat has won North Carolina in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and holding the state is critical to any chance McCain has of election. A plurality of North Carolina voters (48%) in the new poll say McCain is the candidate most likely to carry the state, but 40% expect the Democrat to win North Carolina.
CNN Time
Date: 10/19-21
North Carolina
Added: 10/23/08
WSOC TV
Date: 10/20-21
North Carolina
Added: 10/23/08
Quote: Compared to a previous poll for the station, Sen. Barack Obama is up 2.4 percentage points in the race for the presidency, while Sen. John McCain, his Republican challenger, is down 1.4 percent. That poll showed McCain had a slight advantage with 47.8 percent support, but this poll shows Obama has pulled ahead with 48.4 percent support. Undecided voters made up 5.2 percent of those polled, down one percentage point from the previous poll. With these current numbers, it appears North Carolina is still up for grabs but could be tilting in Obama�s favor. The Senate race in North Carolina is also too close to call. The percentage of undecided voters, which was 8 in this poll, will likely determine whether Democrat Kay Hagan takes Sen. Elizabeth Dole�s seat. Hagan has 44 percent of respondents' support while Dole has 43.4 percent. In the race to become North Carolina�s next governor, Democrat Bev Perdue�s support is down slightly and Republican Pat McCrory, Charlotte�s mayor, has gained some support. In the previous poll, Perdue, the N.C. lieutenant governor, had a 3.4 percent advantage over McCrory. That lead is down to 0.6 percent in the new poll to 44.2 percent. McCrory 43.8 percent of respondents' support, up from 43 percent. The number of people who said they are voting for a third-party candidate is now up to 4.6 percent, up from 3.4 percent. Seven percent of those polled said they are undecided about who they will vote for.
Survey USA
Date: 10/18-20
North Carolina
Added: 10/22/08
Quote: Once in a generation, 3 top-ticket statewide contests are as closely fought as are this year's North Carolina elections for President, United States Senator and Governor. And less often still, are the results of 2 of those 3 contests as important to the rest of the country as they may turn out to be in North Carolina in 2008. In the election for President, in a state John McCain must hold if the GOP is to keep the White House, it's McCain 47%, Obama 47%. An Obama win in North Carolina may ensure an electoral college victory for the Democrats in 2008. In the election for US Senator, in a state that could decide whether the Democrats achieve a filibuster-proof "super-majority" in the next Congress, incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan are effectively tied, 46% Hagan, 45% Dole. And in the election for the open seat of Governor of North Carolina, Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Beverly Perdue are also inside of SurveyUSA's margin of sampling error, 46% McCrory, 43% Perdue. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll two weeks ago: McCain is down 2 points, Obama is up 1; Dole is up 1, Hagan is up 3, Libertarian Chris Cole is down 2; McCrory is flat, Perdue is down 2, but Libertarian Mike Munger is up 3. In the presidential race, most demographic sub-groups are stable, but there is movement among the less affluent to Obama and among the more affluent to McCain. In the Senate race, the contest is in single digits in greater Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro, with McCain up by double digits only in the less densely populated Southern and Coastal parts of the state. In the Governor contest, McCrory has lost striking ground to the Libertarian Munger among men and among the less affluent.
Insider Advantage for Politico.com
Date: 10/19
North Carolina
Added: 10/22/08
Quote: In Wake County, N.C., home to Raleigh and its suburbs, Obama leads McCain by nine points, 52 percent to 43 percent. As in Washoe, this new result represents a turn toward the Democratic nominee: Politico�s last survey of Wake County Oct. 9 had Obama on top by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent.
Civitas TelOpinion (R)
Date: 10/18-20
North Carolina
Added: 10/21/08
Quote: The race for President in North Carolina is showing signs of tightening with just two weeks remaining until election day. Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama had opened up a 5 point lead in a previous Civitas poll, but a new poll released today shows his margin down to three points over John McCain. According to the live telephone survey of 600 likely General Election voters, Obama leads McCain 47-42 among those who initially voiced support for a candidate. However, when undecided voters are asked which way they lean, Obama�s lead becomes to 48-45. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr receives two percent of the vote. Seven percent of voters remained undecided. �Since John McCain has begun to campaign in North Carolina, his numbers seem to be improving,� said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. �He�s been able to pick up two points on Obama in the past two weeks according to our polling.� A gender gap appears to be developing as female voters break for Obama 54-36, but McCain holds a 9 point advantage with male voters.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 10/18-19
North Carolina
Added: 10/20/08
Quote: Independent voters continue to move toward Obama in droves. He now has a 51-33 lead with them. He�s also now up to receiving 82% of the Democratic vote. Staying over the 80% threshold there would almost certainly ensure a victory in North Carolina. McCain now leads among white voters just 55-39, an edge that�s not nearly enough given Obama�s 92-6 lead with black voters. George W. Bush won about two thirds of the white vote against both John Kerry and Al Gore in North Carolina. �A lot of folks thought North Carolina might revert right back to the Republican column after John McCain started really contesting here, but Barack Obama is holding strong,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Assuming that the black vote is pretty much fixed McCain needs to add about ten points to his lead among white voters in the next two weeks if he�s going to win the state.� In North Carolina�s US Senate race challenger Kay Hagan continues to lead incumbent Elizabeth Dole, as she has now in PPP�s last seven surveys of the race. Hagan�s advantage is now up to 49-42. Hagan is annihilating Dole among suburban voters, 56-38. She�s also shoring up her support with the key Democratic constituency of black voters, with whom she is now ahead 84-7, and improvement from 78-12 a week ago.
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/19
North Carolina
Added: 10/20/08
Quote: McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of Tar Heel voters, Obama by 55%. Fifty-four percent (54%) of North Carolina voters say that the economy is the most important issue of Election 2008. National security is seen as the top issue by 18%. When it comes to the economy, 51% trust Obama more than McCain while 45% have the opposite view. McCain is trusted more on national security issues. Overall, 63% say that McCain has the right experience to be president while 44% say the same about Obama. However, a plurality (43%) believe Obama is the only candidate who can bring real change to Washington. Twenty-seven percent (27%) believe only McCain could bring the needed change. Fifteen percent (15%) of voters believe that either man could bring real change while 10% say that neither of them can.
Insider Advantage
Date: 10/13
North Carolina
Added: 10/15/08
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/12
North Carolina
Added: 10/14/08
Quote: The first Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll in North Carolina finds a tie in the Tar Heel State. Both McCain and Obama earn 48% of the vote. These numbers represent a very slight improvement for McCain compared to earlier Rasmussen Reports polling in North Carolina but the fact that the race is even competitive in this southern state signals trouble for McCain.
WSOC TV
Date: 10/6-7
North Carolina
Added: 10/11/08
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/8
North Carolina
Added: 10/9/08
Quote: Before these last three polls, McCain had been ahead in five of the six Rasmussen Reports polls conducted this year, and the two candidates were tied once. In all polls, the race for North Carolina�s Electoral College votes has been competitive. The numbers aren�t so close when it comes to the bailout bill: Just 26% agree it was a good thing to do while 51% disagree. Only 26% believe it will help the economy. Another 26% say it will hurt while 30% believe the $700-billion taxpayer investment will have no impact on the nation�s economy. In North Carolina, McCain and Obama are each viewed favorably by 55% of voters. Fifty-five percent (55%) also give positive reviews to Joseph Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee. Fifty-one percent (51%) say the same about McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin. Obama has a solid lead among voters who earn less than $40,000 a year while most earning $60,000 or more favor McCain. McCain leads by a two-to-one margin among regular churchgoers in North Carolina while Obama leads by a similar margin among those who rarely or never attend a house of worship (see full demographic crosstabs).
Survey USA
Date: 10/5-6
North Carolina
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: Obama Puts McCain on Defensive in North Carolina: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 10/07/08, four weeks till votes are counted, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama, or possibly does not, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WTVD-TV Raleigh. The contest today stands at McCain 49%, Obama 46%, if black turnout is 20% on Election Day, as SurveyUSA expects and as SurveyUSA herein reports. However, if black turnout increases by 10%, to 22% of the electorate, the world looks different. The contest in North Carolina has tightened since a SurveyUSA poll conducted immediately after the Republican Convention. Today: McCain leads among men, among voters age 50+, among voters who attend religious services regularly, among pro-life voters and in Greater Charlotte. The contest is effectively even among women, voters under 50, in Greater Greensboro and in Southern and Coastal NC. Obama leads among the youngest voters, among lower-income voters, among Independents, among Moderates, and in greater Raleigh. McCain holds 87% of his GOP base. But Obama holds just 75% of Democrats. 100K NC Blacks May Determine the Next President, the Governor of NC, and whether Democrats Have a Filibuster-Proof Senate: Black turnout is key to forecasting not just who gets North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, but also whether the state elects a Democratic Governor and whether the state contributes a critical take-away to the Democratic effort to get to 60 Senators in Washington DC. McCain today leads 2:1 among whites. Obama leads 17:1 among blacks. In SurveyUSA's model, blacks are 20% of the North Carolina electorate. However: If black turnout increases, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, from approximately 750,000 NC black voters to 850,000 NC black voters, it is possible that Obama wins North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, that Kay Hagan defeats Elizabeth Dole in the US Senate contest, and that Beverly Perdue defeats Pat McCrory in the North Carolina Governor's race. See the SurveyDNA™ brand hypothetical data set that gives you an exclusive window into how things change with slightly larger black turnout.
CNN/TIME
Date: 10/3-6
North Carolina
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: �Obama's strongest region is in the Raleigh/Durham area,� noted CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. �McCain does best in Charlotte and the surrounding counties.� The last Democrat to carry North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. The state�s 15 electoral votes are considered to be critical to any successful Republican presidential campaign.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 10/4-5
North Carolina
Added: 10/6/08
Quote: �If 80% or more of Democrats in North Carolina really end up voting for Obama then John McCain is finished here,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Republicans have won here in the Presidential race for years by taking anywhere from a fifth to a third of the Democratic vote, but if that doesn�t happen this year the state is going to turn blue.� Obama also has a 46-40 lead with independents in the state. He may have been aided by his trip to Asheville in this poll. After trailing by an average of six points in the region over the course of PPP�s last three polls he is leading 54-37 there this time. He has also reached his highest percentage of the white vote in a PPP poll, at 38%. With increased black turnout this year that�s probably good enough to take the state. Kay Hagan continues to hold a commanding lead over Elizabeth Dole for the state�s Senate seat. She is up 49-40, with Libertarian Christopher Cole pulling 5% of the vote. She�s up double digits among independent voters and is winning in almost every region of the state.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 North Carolina polls.
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