2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Research 2000 for DailyKos.com
Date: 9/22-24
Oregon
Added: 9/27/08

Quote:

Merkley (D) 45 Smith (R) 40

A new SUSA poll out today reinforces this one, with Merkley with a slim lead, 44-42. The significance of that poll, however, is that it shows Merkley gaining seven points and Smith losing seven since their previous poll, conducted in early August.

The momentum is definitely on Merkley's side. Independents have definitely not been swayed by Smith's "I'm really a moderate" shtick and continue to give him high unfavorables (see the crosstabs below the fold). He also hasn't managed to convince many Democrats who got used to the idea that you could vote for a Republican back in the days of Tom McCall and Mark Hatfield.

The news on the Presidential front is very good: Obama leads McCain 53-39, with just 3 percent undecided.

Survey USA
Date: 9/22-23
Oregon
Added: 9/25/08

Quote:

Oregon Men Take A 2nd Look At Merkley, Who Catches Smith In Bid To Capture US Senate Seat For Democrats: In an election in Oregon today, 09/25/08, 40 days until votes are counted, Democrats at the top of the ballot both have momentum, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland, and for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. For President, Barack Obama today defeats John McCain 52% to 41%, an 8-point improvement for Obama compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 7 weeks ago, when Obama defeated McCain by 3 points, within that poll's margin of sampling error. Among men, McCain had led by 5, now trails by 7, a 12-point swing to the Democrat. Among voters older than Barack Obama but younger than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now trails by 11, a 20-point swing to the Democrat. In Eastern OR, McCain had led by 14, now trails by 5, a 19-point swing to the Democrat. Among college grads, Obama had led by 3, now leads by 17, a 14-point swing to the Democrat. Among Independents, Obama's lead has doubled. Among higher-income voters, Obama is 8 points better than was was in August. For the United States Senate seat held by Republican Gordon Smith, the contest today is effectively even, Merkley 44%, Smith 42%, a 14-point improvement for Merkley compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 7 weeks ago, when, Smith led by 12. But: Constitution party candidate Dave Brownlow gets 8% in SurveyUSA polling today, and an additional 6% remain undecided, making the contest difficult to handicap.Among men, Smith led by 16 in August, trails by 7 today. In greater Portland, Smith led by 11 points in August, trails by 6 points today. Among voters under age 50, Smith led by 11 points in August, trails by 8 today. Among Moderates, Smith led by 4 points in August, trails by 7 points today. Among those who have not graduated from college, Smith led by 13 in August, trails by 3 today. Among lower income voters, Smith led by 6 points in August, trails by 6 points today. Brownlow is in double digits among Independents, voters who disapprove of Smith, disapprove of Obama, and voters who earn less than $50,000 a year. Smith has a Net Favorability of Minus 11. Merkley has a Net Favorability of Minus 5. McCain has a Net Favorability of Zero. Obama has a Net Favorability of Plus 17. 24% in Oregon approve of the job that President Bush is doing. 13% approve of the job the US Congress is doing. Asked which of 8 issues was most important, more voters picked the economy than the other 7 issues combined. Voters focused on the economy back Obama by 13 points, back Merkley by 3 points.

American Research Group
Date: 9/19-22
Oregon
Added: 9/23/08

Quote:

Independents (21%) : McCain 42, Obama 46.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 9/15
Oregon
Added: 9/18/08

Quote:

Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of Oregon voters, McCain by 56%. Obama�s running mate, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 54% while the Republican Vice Presidential nominee�Sarah Palin�earns positive reviews from 52%.

Forty-eight percent (48%) say that McCain made the right decision in selecting his running mate while 44% say the same about Obama.

Eighty-three percent (83%) view Palin as politically conservative while 53% see Biden as politically liberal.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Oregon polls.

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