2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Public Policy Polling
Date: 8/20-22
Virginia
Added: 8/25/08

Quote:

The Republican has a 59% to 38% edge among white voters in Virginia, while Obama has a 78% to 18% lead among non-whites.

The candidates are even when it comes to voter trust. Each candidate is trusted more than the other by 46% of likely voters.

This week, 35% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House, while 29% say that about McCain. However, 40% of voters say they would be not be comfortable at all with Obama as president, compared to just 36% who say the same about McCain.

When it comes to their running mates, 26% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable if Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph Biden was forced to step in as president, while 22% say that of Palin. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Biden in charge, and 44% say the same of Palin. A separate national survey released earlier today found that voters say McCain and Biden are the most prepared to be president.

If faced with the toughest decisions of their lives, 48% of voters say they would turn to McCain for advice, while 46% would choose Obama. Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1.One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama. In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced. With third-party candidates added in, McCain's lead in Virginia expands to 49% to 43%. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 57% of voters in Virginia and unfavorably by 44%, representing an improvement from the last poll conducted before his convention. McCain�s ratings are 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable, which has remained relatively unchanged.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost. No Bounce Either Way in VA After 2 Political Conventions; State Still In-Play: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/08/08, 8 weeks till votes are counted, John McCain and Barack Obama remain effectively tied, in research conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Today, it's McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%. Today's data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26.

Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain. There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote. There is no movement in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. There is offsetting movement: to McCain in military-rich Southeast VA, to Obama in the DC suburbs. .

Insider Advantage / Majority Opinion Research
Date: 8/12
Virginia
Added: 8/14/08

Quote:

The Republican has a 59% to 38% edge among white voters in Virginia, while Obama has a 78% to 18% lead among non-whites.

The candidates are even when it comes to voter trust. Each candidate is trusted more than the other by 46% of likely voters.

This week, 35% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House, while 29% say that about McCain. However, 40% of voters say they would be not be comfortable at all with Obama as president, compared to just 36% who say the same about McCain.

When it comes to their running mates, 26% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable if Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph Biden was forced to step in as president, while 22% say that of Palin. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Biden in charge, and 44% say the same of Palin. A separate national survey released earlier today found that voters say McCain and Biden are the most prepared to be president.

If faced with the toughest decisions of their lives, 48% of voters say they would turn to McCain for advice, while 46% would choose Obama. Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1.One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama. In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced. With third-party candidates added in, McCain's lead in Virginia expands to 49% to 43%. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 57% of voters in Virginia and unfavorably by 44%, representing an improvement from the last poll conducted before his convention. McCain�s ratings are 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable, which has remained relatively unchanged.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost. No Bounce Either Way in VA After 2 Political Conventions; State Still In-Play: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/08/08, 8 weeks till votes are counted, John McCain and Barack Obama remain effectively tied, in research conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Today, it's McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%. Today's data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26.

Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain. There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote. There is no movement in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. There is offsetting movement: to McCain in military-rich Southeast VA, to Obama in the DC suburbs. . InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �Obama is doing well among independents and females. I must admit that the typical age patterns we have seen in all of our recent surveys did not hold in this one. For example, the youngest vote, although a small sample, went to McCain, but the 65 and over vote went to McCain by a lower percentage than in our surveys of other states.

"Regardless, the secret to Obama�s ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia�s black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years. And, as I�ve noted many times, polls this far out always give the Republican candidate a higher percentage of the African-American vote than they ultimately receive. This will make the votes of those who chose 'other' or 'undecided' critical as the race really gets underway after the conventions.�

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 8/12
Virginia
Added: 8/14/08

Quote:

The Republican has a 59% to 38% edge among white voters in Virginia, while Obama has a 78% to 18% lead among non-whites.

The candidates are even when it comes to voter trust. Each candidate is trusted more than the other by 46% of likely voters.

This week, 35% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House, while 29% say that about McCain. However, 40% of voters say they would be not be comfortable at all with Obama as president, compared to just 36% who say the same about McCain.

When it comes to their running mates, 26% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable if Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph Biden was forced to step in as president, while 22% say that of Palin. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Biden in charge, and 44% say the same of Palin. A separate national survey released earlier today found that voters say McCain and Biden are the most prepared to be president.

If faced with the toughest decisions of their lives, 48% of voters say they would turn to McCain for advice, while 46% would choose Obama. Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1.One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama. In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced. With third-party candidates added in, McCain's lead in Virginia expands to 49% to 43%. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 57% of voters in Virginia and unfavorably by 44%, representing an improvement from the last poll conducted before his convention. McCain�s ratings are 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable, which has remained relatively unchanged.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost. No Bounce Either Way in VA After 2 Political Conventions; State Still In-Play: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/08/08, 8 weeks till votes are counted, John McCain and Barack Obama remain effectively tied, in research conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Today, it's McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%. Today's data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26.

Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain. There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote. There is no movement in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. There is offsetting movement: to McCain in military-rich Southeast VA, to Obama in the DC suburbs. . InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �Obama is doing well among independents and females. I must admit that the typical age patterns we have seen in all of our recent surveys did not hold in this one. For example, the youngest vote, although a small sample, went to McCain, but the 65 and over vote went to McCain by a lower percentage than in our surveys of other states.

"Regardless, the secret to Obama�s ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia�s black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years. And, as I�ve noted many times, polls this far out always give the Republican candidate a higher percentage of the African-American vote than they ultimately receive. This will make the votes of those who chose 'other' or 'undecided' critical as the race really gets underway after the conventions.� While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.

McCain does have one significant edge over Obama in that he is viewed far more favorably than his Democratic opponent. McCain earns favorable reviews from 61% of Virginia voters, Obama from just 51%.

Perhaps more ominous for Obama is the fact that 47% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 31% with a Very Unfavorable view.

For McCain, just 36% have an unfavorable opinion including 16% with a Very Unfavorable assessment.

Two Virginia politicians have been mentioned as potential Vice Presidential candidates. Neither appears poised to make a significant impact. Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters statewide say adding Governor Tim Kaine to the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Obama. A nearly identical number (25%) would be less likely to vote for Obama. Among unaffiliated voters, 12% consider adding Kaine a plus while 24% hold the opposite view.

As for Congressman Eric Cantor, just 12% of voters would be more likely to vote for McCain with him on ticket. Twenty-three percent (23%) would be less likely to do so. Among unaffiliated voters, 8% more likely, 23% less likely.

Survey USA
Date: 8/8-10
Virginia
Added: 8/11/08

Quote:

The Republican has a 59% to 38% edge among white voters in Virginia, while Obama has a 78% to 18% lead among non-whites.

The candidates are even when it comes to voter trust. Each candidate is trusted more than the other by 46% of likely voters.

This week, 35% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House, while 29% say that about McCain. However, 40% of voters say they would be not be comfortable at all with Obama as president, compared to just 36% who say the same about McCain.

When it comes to their running mates, 26% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable if Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph Biden was forced to step in as president, while 22% say that of Palin. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Biden in charge, and 44% say the same of Palin. A separate national survey released earlier today found that voters say McCain and Biden are the most prepared to be president.

If faced with the toughest decisions of their lives, 48% of voters say they would turn to McCain for advice, while 46% would choose Obama. Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1.One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama. In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced. With third-party candidates added in, McCain's lead in Virginia expands to 49% to 43%. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 57% of voters in Virginia and unfavorably by 44%, representing an improvement from the last poll conducted before his convention. McCain�s ratings are 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable, which has remained relatively unchanged.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost. No Bounce Either Way in VA After 2 Political Conventions; State Still In-Play: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/08/08, 8 weeks till votes are counted, John McCain and Barack Obama remain effectively tied, in research conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Today, it's McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%. Today's data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26.

Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain. There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote. There is no movement in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. There is offsetting movement: to McCain in military-rich Southeast VA, to Obama in the DC suburbs. . InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �Obama is doing well among independents and females. I must admit that the typical age patterns we have seen in all of our recent surveys did not hold in this one. For example, the youngest vote, although a small sample, went to McCain, but the 65 and over vote went to McCain by a lower percentage than in our surveys of other states.

"Regardless, the secret to Obama�s ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia�s black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years. And, as I�ve noted many times, polls this far out always give the Republican candidate a higher percentage of the African-American vote than they ultimately receive. This will make the votes of those who chose 'other' or 'undecided' critical as the race really gets underway after the conventions.� While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.

McCain does have one significant edge over Obama in that he is viewed far more favorably than his Democratic opponent. McCain earns favorable reviews from 61% of Virginia voters, Obama from just 51%.

Perhaps more ominous for Obama is the fact that 47% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 31% with a Very Unfavorable view.

For McCain, just 36% have an unfavorable opinion including 16% with a Very Unfavorable assessment.

Two Virginia politicians have been mentioned as potential Vice Presidential candidates. Neither appears poised to make a significant impact. Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters statewide say adding Governor Tim Kaine to the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Obama. A nearly identical number (25%) would be less likely to vote for Obama. Among unaffiliated voters, 12% consider adding Kaine a plus while 24% hold the opposite view.

As for Congressman Eric Cantor, just 12% of voters would be more likely to vote for McCain with him on ticket. Twenty-three percent (23%) would be less likely to do so. Among unaffiliated voters, 8% more likely, 23% less likely. Virginia Continues to Lay Out as Key Battleground State in 2008: In an election for President of the United States held in Virginia today, 08/11/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama tie, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington DC. Today, it's McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error, effectively even. Obama leads by 13 points in SE Virginia and by 11 points in the NE Virginia; McCain leads by 23 in the Shenandoah and by 5 in Central Virginia.

McCain holds 89% of the GOP base. Obama holds 86% of the Democrat base. Independents break 5:4 for McCain. Moderates break 3:2 for Obama. Obama leads slightly among those who have graduated college. McCain leads slightly among those who have not. McCain leads among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads among those who rarely go to church. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 6 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 9. Among voters younger than McCain, the contest is effectively even.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Virginia polls.

Traffic During 2008 Election

2008 Election Results - Presidential

2008 Predicted Electoral Math

2008 Democratic Primary Results

2008 Republican Primary Results

2008 Independent Candidates

Nader	Bob Barr
McKinney	Baldwin

Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

Election Polls