2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Survey USA Poll
Date: 2/17/08
Virginia
Added: 2/17/08

Quote:

. InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �Obama is doing well among independents and females. I must admit that the typical age patterns we have seen in all of our recent surveys did not hold in this one. For example, the youngest vote, although a small sample, went to McCain, but the 65 and over vote went to McCain by a lower percentage than in our surveys of other states.

"Regardless, the secret to Obama�s ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia�s black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years. And, as I�ve noted many times, polls this far out always give the Republican candidate a higher percentage of the African-American vote than they ultimately receive. This will make the votes of those who chose 'other' or 'undecided' critical as the race really gets underway after the conventions.� While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.

McCain does have one significant edge over Obama in that he is viewed far more favorably than his Democratic opponent. McCain earns favorable reviews from 61% of Virginia voters, Obama from just 51%.

Perhaps more ominous for Obama is the fact that 47% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 31% with a Very Unfavorable view.

For McCain, just 36% have an unfavorable opinion including 16% with a Very Unfavorable assessment.

Two Virginia politicians have been mentioned as potential Vice Presidential candidates. Neither appears poised to make a significant impact. Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters statewide say adding Governor Tim Kaine to the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Obama. A nearly identical number (25%) would be less likely to vote for Obama. Among unaffiliated voters, 12% consider adding Kaine a plus while 24% hold the opposite view.

As for Congressman Eric Cantor, just 12% of voters would be more likely to vote for McCain with him on ticket. Twenty-three percent (23%) would be less likely to do so. Among unaffiliated voters, 8% more likely, 23% less likely. Virginia Continues to Lay Out as Key Battleground State in 2008: In an election for President of the United States held in Virginia today, 08/11/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama tie, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington DC. Today, it's McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error, effectively even. Obama leads by 13 points in SE Virginia and by 11 points in the NE Virginia; McCain leads by 23 in the Shenandoah and by 5 in Central Virginia.

McCain holds 89% of the GOP base. Obama holds 86% of the Democrat base. Independents break 5:4 for McCain. Moderates break 3:2 for Obama. Obama leads slightly among those who have graduated college. McCain leads slightly among those who have not. McCain leads among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads among those who rarely go to church. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 6 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 9. Among voters younger than McCain, the contest is effectively even. Men: Obama 37, McCain 46. Women: Obama 51, McCain 33. The contest in Virginia stacks up pretty much as one would expect. Obama leads by large margins with African Americans, Hispanics, and younger voters. McCain has a strong edge with white and older voters. One surprising thing in the results is that there is no gender gap. Obama leads by a point with both men and women.

�In some states, like Ohio and Florida, it�s really hard to know where the race stands right now because the polls are all over the place,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �In others, like Virginia and North Carolina, there is remarkable stability in the polls with all of them showing virtually the same thing. It seems safe to say that Virginia will be one of the most closely contested states in the country this fall.� The presidential race in Virginia is now dead even, with Barack Obama and John McCain each drawing 44% of the vote, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

If �leaners� are factored in, McCain leads by a statistically insignificant one percentage point 48% to 47%.

Despite the close race, one potentially worrisome fact for the Democratic candidate is that nearly one out of two Virginia voters (47%) now view him unfavorably. That�s up from 44% in May and June. The number who see him in a Very Unfavorable light stands at 31%.

McCain�s unfavorables, by contrast, have held steady at 36% for the past two months and only 13% have a Very Unfavorable view of him.

Just last month Obama edged ahead of McCain in Virginia for the first time 45% to 44%. Although that lead was statistically insignificant, the narrowness of the contest in a state that has gone Republican in every presidential contest since 1968 has buoyed Democratic hopes of adding it to their column this November.

In the survey taken Wednesday night, the number of Virginia voters who favor a third-party candidate remains unchanged from last month at 5%. Six percent (6%) remain undecided, down one point from a month ago.

In five of the last six polls, Obama and McCain have been within five points of each other. Only in March with the Jeremiah Wright controversy raging did the Republican candidate jump ahead significantly �- by 11 points. . . . . . . .

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 2/19/08
Virginia
Added: 2/19/08

Quote:

. InsiderAdvantage�s Matt Towery: �Obama is doing well among independents and females. I must admit that the typical age patterns we have seen in all of our recent surveys did not hold in this one. For example, the youngest vote, although a small sample, went to McCain, but the 65 and over vote went to McCain by a lower percentage than in our surveys of other states.

"Regardless, the secret to Obama�s ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia�s black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years. And, as I�ve noted many times, polls this far out always give the Republican candidate a higher percentage of the African-American vote than they ultimately receive. This will make the votes of those who chose 'other' or 'undecided' critical as the race really gets underway after the conventions.� While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.

McCain does have one significant edge over Obama in that he is viewed far more favorably than his Democratic opponent. McCain earns favorable reviews from 61% of Virginia voters, Obama from just 51%.

Perhaps more ominous for Obama is the fact that 47% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 31% with a Very Unfavorable view.

For McCain, just 36% have an unfavorable opinion including 16% with a Very Unfavorable assessment.

Two Virginia politicians have been mentioned as potential Vice Presidential candidates. Neither appears poised to make a significant impact. Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters statewide say adding Governor Tim Kaine to the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Obama. A nearly identical number (25%) would be less likely to vote for Obama. Among unaffiliated voters, 12% consider adding Kaine a plus while 24% hold the opposite view.

As for Congressman Eric Cantor, just 12% of voters would be more likely to vote for McCain with him on ticket. Twenty-three percent (23%) would be less likely to do so. Among unaffiliated voters, 8% more likely, 23% less likely. Virginia Continues to Lay Out as Key Battleground State in 2008: In an election for President of the United States held in Virginia today, 08/11/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama tie, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington DC. Today, it's McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error, effectively even. Obama leads by 13 points in SE Virginia and by 11 points in the NE Virginia; McCain leads by 23 in the Shenandoah and by 5 in Central Virginia.

McCain holds 89% of the GOP base. Obama holds 86% of the Democrat base. Independents break 5:4 for McCain. Moderates break 3:2 for Obama. Obama leads slightly among those who have graduated college. McCain leads slightly among those who have not. McCain leads among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads among those who rarely go to church. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 6 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 9. Among voters younger than McCain, the contest is effectively even. Men: Obama 37, McCain 46. Women: Obama 51, McCain 33. The contest in Virginia stacks up pretty much as one would expect. Obama leads by large margins with African Americans, Hispanics, and younger voters. McCain has a strong edge with white and older voters. One surprising thing in the results is that there is no gender gap. Obama leads by a point with both men and women.

�In some states, like Ohio and Florida, it�s really hard to know where the race stands right now because the polls are all over the place,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �In others, like Virginia and North Carolina, there is remarkable stability in the polls with all of them showing virtually the same thing. It seems safe to say that Virginia will be one of the most closely contested states in the country this fall.� The presidential race in Virginia is now dead even, with Barack Obama and John McCain each drawing 44% of the vote, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

If �leaners� are factored in, McCain leads by a statistically insignificant one percentage point 48% to 47%.

Despite the close race, one potentially worrisome fact for the Democratic candidate is that nearly one out of two Virginia voters (47%) now view him unfavorably. That�s up from 44% in May and June. The number who see him in a Very Unfavorable light stands at 31%.

McCain�s unfavorables, by contrast, have held steady at 36% for the past two months and only 13% have a Very Unfavorable view of him.

Just last month Obama edged ahead of McCain in Virginia for the first time 45% to 44%. Although that lead was statistically insignificant, the narrowness of the contest in a state that has gone Republican in every presidential contest since 1968 has buoyed Democratic hopes of adding it to their column this November.

In the survey taken Wednesday night, the number of Virginia voters who favor a third-party candidate remains unchanged from last month at 5%. Six percent (6%) remain undecided, down one point from a month ago.

In five of the last six polls, Obama and McCain have been within five points of each other. Only in March with the Jeremiah Wright controversy raging did the Republican candidate jump ahead significantly �- by 11 points. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Virginia polls.

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