2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Survey USA
Date: 10/30-11/1
Virginia
Added: 11/2/08

Quote:

A Month Ago, McCain Led by 9 Among VA Whites ... Now He Leads by 17 Among VA Whites ... And So ... Virginia whites veer back toward John McCain in the campaign's final 72 hours, helping the Republican to close to within 4 points of Democrat Barack Obama, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Obama, in interviews through Saturday night 11/01/08, leads 50% to 46%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA VA poll 1 week ago, McCain is up 3, Obama is down 2. Among voters age 35 to 49, McCain leads today for the first time in 7 weeks. Immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 22 points among white Virginians. That narrowed to a 9-point McCain lead when the stock market fell. Now, at the wire, McCain is back up to a 17 point advantage among whites. In the Shenandoah, McCain moves ahead of Obama. In the DC suburbs, McCain slices into Obama's lead. Virginia men continued to be more affected by events than Virginia women. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Of them, 748 were registered to vote. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day.

Mason Dixon
Date: 10/28-29
Virginia
Added: 11/2/08

Marist College
Date: 10/26-27
Virginia
Added: 10/30/08

Quote:

Majority of Likely Voters Back Barack Obama�McCain Close Behind: With Virginia�s 13 electoral votes up for grabs, Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain are engaged in a competitive contest in Virginia. Obama leads McCain by 6 percentage points among registered voters. When looking at Virginia�s likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama receives a majority of the vote -- 51% -- to McCain�s 47%, a four percentage point margin. Support for the candidates breaks along party lines. 93% of Democrats favor Obama while 87% of Republicans back John McCain. However, Obama gets nearly twice the proportion of Republicans as McCain gets Democrats. A majority of Independent voters -- 54% -- report they are behind John McCain compared with 42% who support Barack Obama.

National Journal FD
Date: 10/23-27
Virginia
Added: 10/30/08

CNN TIME
Date: 10/23-28
Virginia
Added: 10/30/08

Associated Press GFK
Date: 10/22-26
Virginia
Added: 10/29/08

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/26
Virginia
Added: 10/28/08

Quote:

While the size of Obama�s lead has varied from poll-to-poll, it�s worth noting that the Democratic hopeful has been at 50% or higher in six straight polls while McCain�s support has stayed in the 44% to 48% range. As in many other states, the Republican candidate was doing better in Virginia before Lehman Brothers collapsed and the Wall Street problems became visible.

Two weeks ago, Obama enjoyed a ten-point lead in Virginia, his biggest advantage all year.

Both candidates are now viewed favorably by 55% of voters and 47% say that they trust each man more than the other.

However, on the issue of the economy, 51% trust Obama more than McCain while 46% hold the opposite view. It�s no coincidence that those numbers are very similar to overall levels of support for the candidates.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of liberals support Obama while just 80% of conservatives plan to vote for McCain. Obama leads by fourteen points among women but trails by six among men.

George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a Red State they are increasingly hopeful of peeling away from Republicans. At the time this poll was released, Virginia is listed as �Leans Democratic� in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Virginia voters say they�re most interested in a candidate who can bring about the needed change. Twenty-six percent (26%) are looking for someone who shares their values while another 20% say they want a candidate with the right experience.

VCU
Date: 10/20-22
Virginia
Added: 10/27/08

Quote:

As we enter the final days of the presidential election campaign, likely voters1 in Virginia prefer Democratic Party nominee Barack Obama, over Republican Party nominee John McCain by an 11-point margin (51% for Obama to 40% for McCain). Further, Mark Warner, the Democratic Party candidate for U.S. Senate holds a strong lead over his Republican opponent, Jim Gilmore (61% for Warner to 27% for Gilmore) among likely voters. These findings are part of a new state-wide survey conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University. The Commonwealth Poll was conducted by telephone with 902 registered voters and 817 likely voters from October 20-22, 2008. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters and likely voters, respectively.

�All eyes have been on Virginia voters for the first time in decades,� said Cary Funk, Ph.D., director of the Commonwealth Poll and associate professor of the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs. �Obama�s lead looks strong in both Northern Virginia as well as in the Tidewater region. The most closely divided region of the state is the central region, which includes the greater Richmond area,� Funk said.

Voting intentions are closely aligned with party identification. Obama garners 46% to McCain�s 40% among independents who are registered to vote. Republican voters support McCain over Obama by a wide margin; 86% for McCain to just 10% for Obama. Similar portions of Democratic voters support Obama (88% for Obama to 4% for McCain).

Washington Post
Date: 10/22-25
Virginia
Added: 10/27/08

Quote:

In recent weeks, McCain and state and national Republicans have sought to slow Obama's momentum in Virginia by sending out a flurry of mailers and automated calls that try to link him to 1960s radical William Ayers.

"I honestly believe Obama is a socialist, a Chicago thug," said Donna Tilley, 58, who lives in Chesterfield County, outside Richmond.

But overall, the poll indicates that McCain's attacks on Obama's character do not appear to be working. Two-thirds of Virginia voters have a favorable impression of Obama. About half have a favorable view of McCain, but his unfavorable rating stands at 45 percent, which is 15 percentage points higher than Obama's. A month ago, about as many voters said McCain was the more honest and trustworthy as said so about Obama. Now, Obama has a 20-point lead on the question.

Obama holds a 17-point lead in Hampton Roads, a crucial area in Virginia elections, while McCain is narrowly ahead in the Richmond area and in the Shenandoah Valley and southwestern Virginia. Even in those areas, though, Obama is breaking the 40 percent mark.

Reuters Zogby
Date: 10/23-26
Virginia
Added: 10/27/08

Quote:

Obama has a lead exceeding 20 points in the Washington, D.C. area, and a double-digit lead in the Richmond and Norfolk areas. That more than overtakes McCain's lead in the rest of the state. Obama also holds an 18-point lead among Independents and does slightly better among Democrats than McCain does with Republicans. McCain leads by 21 points among white voters and by 11 among those over age 65. Obama gets 94% of African-Americans, who comprise 22% of the sample.

Survey USA
Date: 10/25-26
Virginia
Added: 10/27/08

Quote:

Virginia Men Wrestle with Obama-McCain Decision: Eight days until votes are counted in Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 43%. Surprising ongoing volatility among Virginia men, where McCain has led in 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls, been tied in 1, and trailed in 2, including today's. McCain today has his highest number to date in Southeast Virginia, but his lowest number to date in Northeast Virginia. 800 adults were interviewed 10/25/08 and 10/26/08. Of them 764 were registered to vote. Of them, 671 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. Those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted disproportionately vote for Obama in the Presidential contest and for Democrat Mark Warner in the US Senate contest. Warner continues to lead Republican Jim Gilmore decisively.

Winthrop ETV
Date: 9/28-10/19
Virginia
Added: 10/24/08

Quote:

However, alarms are going off for McCain in the nearby battlegrounds of North Carolina and Virginia. There, the U.S. senator from Arizona is in a neck-and-neck battle with Obama, according to the poll.

CNN Time
Date: 10/19-21
Virginia
Added: 10/23/08

NBC Mason Dixon
Date: 10/20-21
Virginia
Added: 10/23/08

Survey USA
Date: 10/18-19
Virginia
Added: 10/20/08

Quote:

'Real' Virginians Take Another Look At McCain; Contest Tightens 2 Weeks till Votes Are Counted: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 10/20/08, two weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 51% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, McCain has gained 2 points, Obama has lost 2 points. Obama had led by 10, now by 6. There is movement among men, where Obama had led by 11 but where today McCain leads by 3; among Moderates, where Obama had led by 32 but now leads by 18; and among those who have not graduated from college, where Obama had led by 7, now trails by 2. There is movement to McCain in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. Details are available on the interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/16
Virginia
Added: 10/20/08

Quote:

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain�s numbers are 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable.

Though both candidates have been criticized for negative campaigning this year, most Virginia voters (52%) think the overall tone of this election is about the same as past elections. Just 12% believe this election is more positive, while 35% say it is more negative. Only 50% believe it is possible to win an election without criticizing the opponent, while 40% disagree.

While the plurality of voters (43%) believes Obama�s campaign has been generally positive, over half (54%) say McCain�s has been generally negative.

On the top electoral issue of the economy, 46% of voters in Virginia disagrees with the economic rescue plan passed by Congress two weeks ago. Just 29% agree with the plan and only 38% believe it will help the economy. Twenty-two percent (22%) believe the government action will hurt the economy while another 27% say the $700 billion taxpayer investment will have no impact.

Forty-six percent (46%) says lowering taxes would be the best policy to spur economic growth, but half (51%) also say that raising taxes on those who make over $250,000 a year would help the economy.

Voters in Virginia are less supportive of raising the capital gains tax, with 52% who think this would hurt the economy overall.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 32% of Virginia voters, while 67% give his job performance a poor rating.

Christopher Newport University
Date: 10/11-14
Virginia
Added: 10/16/08

Quote:

With just under three weeks to go before Election Day, Senator Barack Obama leads Senator John McCain in Virginia by 6.0% among likely voters, 49.2% to 43.2%. Obama�s lead appears to be driven by voter concerns about the economy. Asked to name the top issue that they would like candidates to address between now and Election Day, just over six in ten likely voters say the economy. No other issue breaks double digits. These findings are from the Christopher Newport University Virginia Poll conducted October 11-14 of 500 likely voters.

When asked which would be the second issue that they would like the candidates to address between now and Election Day, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan top the list at 20.4%, followed closely by health care at 18.5% and then the economy, gas prices and energy policy, and terrorism. Fewer than 7% want the candidates to address the personal character and integrity of the candidates, suggesting that voters have not responded well to Senator McCain�s efforts to make Senator Obama�s character and integrity an issue in the final weeks of the election.

Nearly 50% of voters think that Joe Biden is the stronger Vice Presidential candidate, compared to just one in three who say Sarah Palin is the stronger Vice Presidential candidate.

CNN/TIME
Date: 10/11-14
Virginia
Added: 10/15/08

Quote:

President Bush won Virginia by nine points over Sen. John Kerry in 2004, and the state hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964.

"Obama is winning men and women in Virginia, and is doing well across the state east of the Blue Ridge Mountains," CNN polling director Keating Holland said.

Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/12
Virginia
Added: 10/14/08

Quote:

In Virginia, a state that no Democrat has won since 1964, Obama earns 50% support for the third straight week while McCain is at 47%. Those results are essentially unchanged from each of the past two weeks.

Public Policy Polling
Date: 10/6-7
Virginia
Added: 10/9/08

Quote:

As it is everywhere, Obama�s movement in the state is being fueled by the economy. 63% of Virginia voters name it as their top issue, and within that group the Democrat has a 59-36 advantage.

Demographically the major shift for Obama over the last three weeks has been among white voters. He�s reduced what was a 60-35 deficit there to just a 52-42 one.

Since the last survey Joe Biden�s stock in the state has risen while Sarah Palin�s has fallen. Biden�s gone from a +11 net favorability to +17 in the week following the Vice Presidential debate, while Palin has dropped from a +2 to a -9.

�Virginia is showing the same trends as pretty much every other battleground state,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Voters are turning toward the Democrats as concern over the economy mounts, and they�re also a lot less enamored with Sarah Palin than they were shortly after the Republican convention.�

The race for the state�s open Senate seat continues to be a romp for Mark Warner. He leads fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore 58-31 while winning independents at a remarkable 66-20 clip. He�s also capturing 26% of the Republican vote, making it nearly impossible for Gilmore to even bring the race within 20 points.

Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/5
Virginia
Added: 10/6/08

Quote:

George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans. No Democrat has won the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

McCain leads among men, 54% to 44%, while Obama has a 55% to 42% advantage among women. White voters in Virginia favor McCain by a 59% to 38% margin, while non-white voters favor Obama, 82% to 16%.

In terms of who voters trust more, each candidate earns 48%. While McCain is trusted more on national security issues by a 52% to 45% margin, Obama is favored when it comes to the economy and jobs, 50% to 46%.

More voters in Virginia say they would be extremely comfortable with an Obama presidency (33%) than a McCain presidency (24%). However, while 40% of voters say they would not be comfortable at all with Obama in the White House, 35% say that about McCain.

Suffolk University
Date: 10/3-5
Virginia
Added: 10/6/08

Survey USA
Date: 10/4-5
Virginia
Added: 10/6/08

Quote:

As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.

There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.

There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.

There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Virginia polls.

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