2008 State Polls

Democrat Polls

Mason Dixon
Date: 9/29-10/1
Virginia
Added: 10/2/08

Quote:

The survey indicated that the nation�s shaky economy is Virginia voters� top concern. Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed identified the economy and jobs as the �single most important national issue� in the election. The war in Iraq ranked second, at eight percent.

The Mason-Dixon results contrast with a flurry of other polls that found a surge in support for Obama nationwide and in the Old Dominion since last week�s nationally-televised debate between the two men.

A CNN/Time Magazine survey conducted Sunday-Tuesday gave Obama a nine percentage point edge in Virginia, for example, and a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll done on Sunday showed the Democrat up by three points statewide.

�Something�s happened in the last few days,� said J. Bradford Coker, Mason-Dixon�s managing director. His poll�s results indicate that the contest may be settling down now after the post-debate spike in Obama�s support, he said. Nightly national polls done by the Gallup organization showed Obama surging to an eight point lead right after the debate, he noted, but the Democrat�s lead had narrowed to four points by Wednesday.

Though the Mason-Dixon survey showed the race in Virginia unchanged by the debate, a plurality of Virginians agree Obama �performed better� in the face off. Seventy-eight percent of those surveyed said they watched the debate and of those, 38 percent judged Obama the victor; 29 percent gave an edge to McCain.

Regionally, the survey indicates McCain and Obama are running even in Hampton Roads, with McCain preferred by 47 percent and Obama by 46 percent.

McCain�s largest regional advantage is in the rural Shenandoah Valley and Piedmont, where he leads, 59-36. Obama�s biggest � and only � lead is in Northern Virginia, the state�s most populous area, where he is ahead, 57-37.

CNN/TIME
Date: 9/28-30
Virginia
Added: 10/1/08

Quote:

In Virginia, which hasn't voted for the Democrats in a presidential contest since 1964, the new poll suggests Obama has a 9-point lead, 53-44 percent.

Insider Advantage
Date: 9/29
Virginia
Added: 10/1/08

Quote:

Analysis: Sen. McCain lost ground since our last survey in Virginia among males (down from 58% to 51%), independents (Obama now leads 44%-to-40%), and among both the youngest of voters and seniors.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 9/28
Virginia
Added: 9/29/08

Quote:

While 38% of Virginia voters say they would be extremely comfortable with an Obama presidency, just 28% say that of a McCain presidency. However, 40% say they would not be comfortable at all with Obama in the White House, while 37% say that about McCain.

While 30% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Joe Biden as the Vice President, 26% say that of Sarah Palin. A third of voters (33%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Biden as VP, while nearly half (45%) say that of Palin.

Voters in Virginia trust McCain slightly more than Obama overall, but they trust Obama more on the economy and jobs by a 50% to 45% margin. Not surprisingly, the economy is the top electoral issue for the plurality of Virginia voters. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama is trusted more on the economy by a 52% to 38% margin.

McCain still has the edge on national security in Virginia, leading Obama 52% to 44% on that issue. Nationally, separate Rasmussen polling found that Obama received a post-debate boost from voters in terms of trust on all issues, including the War in Iraq.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 9/25
Virginia
Added: 9/26/08

Quote:

The current poll marks the first time that either candidate has had more than a two-point advantage in Virginia since May. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans.

McCain�s support from Republicans has slipped from 90% last week to 86% in the current survey. His 13-point advantage among unaffiliated voters in the earlier survey has vanished, with the two candidates essentially even among those voters now. Obama draws support from 92% of Democrats.

Zogby Interactive
Date: 9/9-12
Virginia
Added: 9/26/08

Quote:

Neither candidate has established any breathing room in Virginia.

Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 9/21
Virginia
Added: 9/23/08

Quote:

Forty-nine percent (49%) trust McCain in general more than Obama, but nearly as many (45%) disagree. Voters are nearly evenly divided when asked who they trust more on the economy and jobs. But McCain has a 56% to 40% margin in terms of trust on national security issues.

Just over half of voters (51%) say they would ask advice from McCain if they had to make the toughest decision of their lives versus 40% who say they would ask Obama.

For 45% of Virginia voters, economic issues are the most important thing in this election, while 22% say national security is their chief concern. Eighty-one percent (81%) say they are certain now who they are going to vote for in November.

Survey USA
Date: 9/19-21
Virginia
Added: 9/22/08

American Research Group
Date: 9/17-20
Virginia
Added: 9/22/08

Quote:

Independents (25%): McCain 51, Obama 41.

Allstate National Journal Magazine
Date: 9/11-15
Virginia
Added: 9/19/08

Insider Advantage Poll Position
Date: 9/17
Virginia
Added: 9/18/08

Public Policy Polling
Date: 9/13-14
Virginia
Added: 9/18/08

Christopher Newport University Virginia Poll
Date: 9/10-14
Virginia
Added: 9/18/08

Quote:

Democrats quickly challenged the CNU poll's presidential results, arguing that it included an unrepresentative sample of state voters. The poll included far too few young voters and African Americans, said Jared Leopold, a spokesman for the Democrats' coordinated campaign in Virginia. The Obama camp has targeted both groups.

Only 3 percent of the CNU survey participants were under 30 years old; such voters made up 16 percent of the state's voter turnout in the 2004 election, according to Election Day surveys at polling places statewide. Ten percent of those surveyed by CNU identified themselves as African American; the black turnout in Virginia in 2004 was 22 percent of the total vote.

Quentin Kidd, a CNU political scientist who oversaw the polling, acknowledged that young voters and African Americans were under-represented. "A survey is a snapshot in time," he said, and the CNU poll has a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The CNU poll was based on interviews with 500 voters, each quizzed in person. The PPP poll relied on automated calls, with voters punching in responses to recorded questions on their telephone keypads.

Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 9/14
Virginia
Added: 9/16/08

Quote:

The Republican has a 59% to 38% edge among white voters in Virginia, while Obama has a 78% to 18% lead among non-whites.

The candidates are even when it comes to voter trust. Each candidate is trusted more than the other by 46% of likely voters.

This week, 35% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House, while 29% say that about McCain. However, 40% of voters say they would be not be comfortable at all with Obama as president, compared to just 36% who say the same about McCain.

When it comes to their running mates, 26% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable if Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph Biden was forced to step in as president, while 22% say that of Palin. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Biden in charge, and 44% say the same of Palin. A separate national survey released earlier today found that voters say McCain and Biden are the most prepared to be president.

If faced with the toughest decisions of their lives, 48% of voters say they would turn to McCain for advice, while 46% would choose Obama.

Survey USA
Date: 9/12-14
Virginia
Added: 9/15/08

Quote:

Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1.One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama. In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.

CNN/TIME Opinion Research Corp
Date: 9/7-9
Virginia
Added: 9/11/08

Quote:

With third-party candidates added in, McCain's lead in Virginia expands to 49% to 43%.

Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 9/7/08
Virginia
Added: 9/9/08

Quote:

The Democrat is viewed favorably by 57% of voters in Virginia and unfavorably by 44%, representing an improvement from the last poll conducted before his convention. McCain�s ratings are 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable, which has remained relatively unchanged.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it�s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor�s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

Survey USA
Date: 9/5-7
Virginia
Added: 9/9/08

Quote:

No Bounce Either Way in VA After 2 Political Conventions; State Still In-Play: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/08/08, 8 weeks till votes are counted, John McCain and Barack Obama remain effectively tied, in research conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Today, it's McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%. Today's data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26.

Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain. There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote. There is no movement in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. There is offsetting movement: to McCain in military-rich Southeast VA, to Obama in the DC suburbs.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Virginia polls.

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