Twelve Weeks Out, McCain Makes Gains in Washington State: Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 51% to 44% in an election for President of the United States in Washington State today, 08/13/08, 83 days until the election, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, when Obama led by 16 points, Obama is down by 4 points; McCain is up 5. Among women, Obama had led by 22, now leads by 15. Among men, Obama had lead by 10, now trails by 1. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama's lead has fallen from 19 points to 10 points.
Among voters older than John McCain, Obama's lead has fallen from 24 points to 8 points. Among those voters in between the two candidates' ages, Obama had led by 10, now leads by 4. Obama has lost ground and McCain has gained ground among every demographic group. One month ago, 14% of Republicans crossed over to vote for Democrat Obama; today, 6% do so. McCain now gets 90% of Republican votes. Obama is up slightly among Democrats; one month ago, he took 87% of Democratic votes; today, he takes 91%. One month ago, Obama led by 7 among independents; today, he trails by 2. In Metro Seattle, Obama led by 29, now leads by 15. In the remainder of Western Washington, Obama had led by 11, now leads by 8. In Eastern Washington, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 13. Men: Obama 44, McCain 36. Women: Obama 53, McCain 33. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Obama ahead 52% to 40%. When �leaners� are included, Obama leads 54% to 42%.
Forty-five percent (45%) believe that most reporters are trying to help Barack Obama win the election while just 10% believe they are trying to help McCain. Those assessments are similar to the views of voters nationwide.
Obama attracts 89% of the Democratic vote while McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 53% to 41%.
Last month, Obama enjoyed a nine-point lead.
Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of Washington voters, McCain by 52%. Those figures are down slightly for both men over the past month. Obama was preferred by 47 percent of those surveyed, compared with 35 percent for the Republicans' Sen. John McCain. Eighteen percent of those surveyed remained undecided. 6. If the Election for Governor in 2008 was between the Democrat Christine Gregoire and the Republican Dino Rossi, whom would you vote for? Christine Gregoire 47% Dino Rossi 45% Undecided 8%
7. Do you think that Washington is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right 26% Wrong 65% Undecided 9%
8. Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of United States military forces from Iraq, within six months? Yes 53% No 36% Undecided 11% Sixteen Weeks Out, Obama Sixteen Points Atop McCain in Washington State: Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 55% to 39% in an election for President of the United States in Washington State today, 07/15/08, 111 days until the election, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon. There is little movement compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago: Obama is down 1 point; McCain is flat. Obama continues to lead among men and women, young and old, among whites and minorities. 14% of Republicans cross-over to vote for Democrat Obama; 10% of Democrats cross-over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents break 4:3 for Obama. Obama leads by 29 points in Metro Seattle -- up from 19 points one month ago. Obama leads by 11 in Western Washington, down from 17 one month ago. A month ago, Obama led by 10 in Eastern Washington; today, McCain leads by 11. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 19, down from 24 last month. Among voters older than McCain, Obama leads by 24, up from 4 last month. General election match ups in Washington State reveal Barack Obama leading John McCain by 10 points in the presidential race, while the gubernatorial race is a statistical dead heat today. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Obama ahead 48% to 39%. When �leaners� are included, Obama leads 51% to 43%.
While Obama has a decisive 52% to 35% lead over McCain among women in Washington, the two candidates are essentially tied among men. McCain is supported by 91% of Republicans and Obama earns the vote from 83% of Democrats. Neither candidate has a significant edge over among voters not affiliated with either political party.
Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Washington voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable.
The latest numbers from the Evergreen State show a much closer race than last month, when Obama led 53% to 35%. However, they are similar to results from the prior survey in May.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 51% to 38%. Last month�s three-poll average showed McCain up by twelve. The June survey was conducted shortly after Obama clinched the nomination and may have reflected a temporary bounce in his support. The Obama advantage is less than the recent 14-point lead registered in a major indepedent survey. It indicates that Washington is barely - just barely - a "battleground" state.
The poll found McCain running far ahead of the president of his party. A total of 61 percent of those surveyed had a negative opinion of President Bush, with 48 percent registering a "hard negative" according to Strategies 360 president Ron Dotzauer.
By contrast, voters broke nearly even on McCain - 44 percent viewing him positively, 46 percent with negative feelings.
Obama was a big winner in Democrats' February caucuses, but the state also has a large reservoir of Hillary Clinton supporters.
The Democratic nominee-in-waiting was viewed positively by 54 percent of those surveyed, negatively by 37 percent.
Seattle PI . . . . . .
