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Obama vs (R)Obama vs Generic RepublicanObama vs Mitt RomneyObama vs Newt GingrichObama vs Ron PaulObama vs Rick SantorumObama vs Jon HuntsmanObama vs Rick PerryObama vs Gary Johnson
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Florida Race is 'Neck and Neck'1/22/12 With South Carolina behind us, how does the Florida race look? Let's start off by understanding one major issue that separates Florida from the three other states that have already voted. Florida has early voting. Romney is expected to have a huge lead among early voters based on how well he'd been polling all of January. Here are the Florida polls from mid-January.
We could expect Romney to have as much as a 20-point lead. 225,000 people have already voted in Florida and that represents 12% of the turnout in 2008. So let's assume 12% has already voted in 2012 and Romney has a 20-point lead among them. Gingrich would have to make any deficit among the remaining 88%. It is a simple formula actually. The percent that Gingrich needs to make up multiplied by the 88% just has to equal Romney's margin of victory 20 points times the 12 percent. 12*20 = 88*x, x= 2.7. Gingrich only needs to have a 2.7 point lead among the remaining voters, which is very very doable. There are a lot of assumptions there but the estimates seem pretty safe. So now onto the polls. Insider Advantage asks "If the Florida Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would have you voted or would you vote for?" Notice that "have you voted" is past tense. These polls include early voters. Insider Advantage conducted a poll Sunday that had Gingrich ahead by 8.
Public Policy Polling's results for just the first day of their poll has a neck and neck race based on the tweets he made.
Nate Silver of the NYTimes tweeted that Insider Advantage has had very pro-Gingrich results.
I wonder what Nate meant about Insider Advantage having pro-Gingrich results. I didn't have to look far. They conducted a poll in New Hampshire on December 12, 2011 and we compared them with ARG, Suffolk, and Rasmussen who conducted polls around the same time. They had the lowest Romney % of all of the other pollsters as well as the highest Gingrich %.
PPP said that they polled 600 respondents which is actually a pretty good sample size in and of itself. The Insider Advantage poll only had 557 responses. All we can say at this point is that the race is tight between Gingrich and Romney. There will be two more debates and plenty of time to vet each of the candidates so the race can change as abruptly as it did in South Carolina. Stay tuned for tomorrow's article. I plan on writing about Rick Santorum. --UPDATE-- 1/23/12, 10:25 EST. Rasmussen Reports has Gingrich ahead of Romney: 41% to 32%. That seems to back up the numbers Insider Advantage has. Comment
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