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Obama's Approval Rating
Approve Disapprove
44.3% 50.9%
SOURCE | SOURCE | SOURCE
2010 Congress
Democrat Republican
43.0% 39.9%
SOURCE
2012 Election
Romney Huckabee Palin
21.4% 21.3% 19.6%
SOURCE

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Health Care Plan Cap & Trade Legal Cases for Abortion Gay Marriage

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Who gets your vote in 2012?


 Barack Obama (BO)

 Mitt Romney (MR)
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Republicans Hold Huge Leads in Swing States

We have been trained to believe the juggernaut of all swing states are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

How are the 2010 races shaping up in these states?

Florida - Including leaners, Republican Rick Scott holds a slim 3 point lead in the Governor race. The Republican Marco Rubio holds a double digit lead over Independent Charlie Crist. But if Crist wins, he probably would caucus with the Republicans anyway.

Ohio - Republican Kasich holds a double digit lead and Republican Portman holds a six point lead in the Governor and Senate races, respectively.

Pennsylvania - The Republicans hold double digit leads in both the Governor and Senate races.

Obama won each of these states in 2008 -- 68 electoral votes. If these states are flipped for the Republican in 2012, he/she would have 241 electoral votes, just 29 shy of the necessary 270 to win. And if these states flip, so will other swing states like Colorado (9), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13).

Obama would most certainly be booted out of the Whitehouse if the 2012 election were this November.

He, and the Democrats, have another two years to right the ship but they are going to have to do so with a Republican controlled congress.

On one hand, the Democrats will argue the Republicans want to see Obama fail and will do nothing. On the other hand, seeing a Republican controlled congress might help close the motivational gap between Democrats and Republicans for 2012.

 

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2008 Predicted Electoral Math

2008 Presidential Candidates

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